Avalanche forecast

Swan Range

Flathead Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow and wind-drifted snow increased the likelihood of triggering a large avalanche on a buried weak layer. Slopes that are typically shaded by the sun above roughly 6500 feet will be the most dangerous. Reduce your chances of triggering a slab avalanche by riding on solar slopes with a hard and supportable crust beneath the new snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    There is uncertainty whether new snow and wind-drifted snow will increase the likelihood of triggering a large avalanche on a buried weak layer in the Swan Range. Given the sensitive nature of this particular weak layer, we took a conservative approach today and rated it CONSIDERABLE at upper elevations.

    Southwest winds drifted new snow into dense slabs below ridgelines and saddles. These slopes are the same ones that harbor a nasty weak layer above a crust. Avoid traveling on steep slopes above roughly 6500 feet that are typically shaded from the sun. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance. You can reduce your chances of triggering a large avalanche by riding on slopes with a supportable crust. Another option is to simply choose low-angle terrain.

    (2/4/2026)

    A human-triggered avalanche in the Flathead Range. This was triggered above 6500 feet on a ridgeline where winds transported snow into thicker slabs. This type of terrain is what I'd avoid in the Swan Range today. 

    Photo: Michael Reavis

Avalanche Discussion

A storm system favored the southern portion of the advisory area. Noisy Basin in the Swan Range grabbed .6 inches of precipitation. At 6000 feet, this precipitation amounted to only 2 inches of settled snow. I’d expect more snow higher up. Our snow camera further south at 5875’ near Swan Lake recorded 4 inches of snow over the past 24 hours. Moss Peak Snotel, even further south and outside of the Advisory in the Missions, picked up just shy of a foot of new snow since yesterday morning. Your best luck may be to head south if you are chasing powder today.

A weak layer of surface hoar above a smooth crust that formed in mid-January is the primary concern in the snowpack. In the Whitefish and Flathead Ranges, I’d expect to find this weak layer buried within the top foot of snow in sheltered areas. Handpits are an easy way to identify the weak layer because it is buried so shallow. As you travel further south in the Swan Range, this weak layer is getting buried deeper in the snow due to new snow and wind-drifted snow. Uncertainty grows as this weak layer gets buried deeper. Signs of instability may become less frequent, and the size of avalanches will increase. Given the history of remotely triggered avalanches and natural avalanches on this weak layer, I’d suggest giving terrain that harbors it a wide margin for error. Those slopes are shaded aspects near and above 6500 feet. 

Last week's warm temperatures and solar input cooked sunny slopes. Snowpits at the end of the heat wave showed wet snow down to the weak layer. Since the warming event, temperatures have dropped and froze the upper snowpack, locking it in place. Triggering an avalanche is unlikely on slopes with a hard, supportable crust.

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