Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger will rise through the day and overnight as new snow accumulates. Small human-triggered avalanches are possible in steep, wind-drifted areas near and above treeline. Carefully evaluate leeward terrain features for signs of unstable snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wind slab hazard will increase during the forecast period as new snow accumulates throughout the day and overnight.

    Today, strong south through southwest winds will have plenty of snow available for transport. This includes unconsolidated recent snow from earlier this week and a few inches of new snow that may fall during the daylight hours. Expect small wind slabs to form on leeward terrain features near and above treeline. Slabs will increase in size as the day progresses. Above treeline, shifting wind directions this week and cross-loading will challenge pinpointing the exact aspects where new and previous wind slabs may exist. 

    Pay attention to new snow totals as you travel today. If the high-end snowfall forecast verifies, expect larger, more dangerous slabs to develop and adjust your travel plans accordingly. Carefully evaluate steep (>35 degrees), wind-loaded terrain features, especially below ridgelines, around rock outcroppings, and in gully features. Look for clues such as fresh cornices, wind pillows, and blowing snow to alert you to potential wind slab locations. Cracking under your skis or sled is a clear sign of instability. Stick to wind-scoured or sheltered terrain to help manage this problem.

Avalanche Discussion

Today, the transition to a colder and active period begins. While snow totals don't appear overly impressive with the first round, multiple feet of snow are forecast near treeline on Mount Shasta by the end of next week.

The snowpack benefitted from the modest refresh earlier this week - about 7 inches of snow (.91" SWE) - but surface conditions remain variable with crusts (sometimes breakable), soft snow, and wind-affected snow predominating. Mount Shasta holds the deepest snowpack with over five feet near treeline. On the west side of the forecast area, winter recreation is limited to only a few slopes due to minimal snow coverage (see this recent video). Faceted layers in the upper snowpack have been observed on the north half of the compass near and above treeline (see recent observations). Forecasters will continue to track these layers as additional loading events move into the area later this weekend and into next week. 

Check out yesterday's observation from Helen Lake.

Regions covered