Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

We have uncertainty, but the snowpack is weak, and warming temperatures may complicate an already delicate situation.  Wet avalanches and widely breaking slab avalanches could both be easy to trigger on Sunday. Choose lower-angle routes and avoid areas with stiff, wind-textured surfaces. On steep, sunny slopes, watch for rollerballs as a sign to move to lower-angle terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    In wind-loaded areas, avalanches could be dangerously large and may break widely across terrain features or be triggered from a distance. Look for recent avalanches, textured snow, and thick, pillow-like drifts that highlight slopes of concern. Keep your distance from these features and stay well clear of cornices.  

    Winds recently overloaded weak layers in our snowpack, and many natural and triggered avalanches have been reported over the past few days.  Observers continue to report collapses, long cracks, and propagating test results. An NWAC forecaster observed a widely propagating avalanche on Rock Mountain that likely occurred naturally on 2/27. Warm temperatures and sunshine could prolong instability and, while less likely, may also increase the likelihood of persistent slabs on steep, sheltered sunny slopes. These weak layers (facets and surface hoar) adjacent to crusts are 1.5 feet deep and widespread on most aspects and elevations.

    (2/28/2026)

    A wide avalanche (D2) on the southeast aspect of the South Peak of Rock Mtn. On the far right, broken cornices and a portion of a crown on the east face. E-S, 5,500ft-6,700ft

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The first day of March will bring spring-like weather with warm temperatures and sunshine. Watch for wet avalanches on sunny slopes as the day progresses. These will mostly be smaller point releases on steep slopes, but they could combine with persistent slabs. If you suspect recent wind loading in similar terrain, it's best to stick to slopes under 35 degrees altogether. You can avoid wet avalanches by moving to shadier slopes as the day progresses. 

    (1/29/2026)

    A large roller ball is a sign that moist snow is becoming weak and could avalanche. Lake Josephine, 5,400ft, NW

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

On Thursday, February 26th, a skier was fully buried in an avalanche at Stevens Pass Resort. Despite a long burial time, the skier was successfully rescued by Stevens Pass Patrol and treated for non-life-threatening injuries. The avalanche occurred on a wind-loaded northwest aspect near 5,3000ft and likely ran on a persistent weak layer over a crust, 15-20" deep.DiscussionWe have considerable uncertainty around how the prolonged warmup will impact our weak snowpack. But we suspect that, at best, it prolongs instability, and, at worst, we see increased slab-avalanche activity on these layers. Consider these unknowns and give yourself wider safety margins around large, open, and wind-affected terrain. 

Westerly winds and wind loading were intense from the 25th through the evening of the 27th. During this period, many natural and triggered avalanches occurred across a range of wind-loaded slopes with slopes over 30 degrees. At upper elevations, there is evidence of several widely propagating avalanches that we suspect failed on these persistent weak layers. Two people were caught and carried in separate slab avalanches, and observers reported natural and triggered avalanches running to the uppermost (2/8) crust. Whumpfing collapses have been widespread, and there's been an increase in propagating snowpack test results. While we're uncertain about how easy it would be to trigger one of these slabs, given the high consequences, it's worth dialing down your terrain selection to low-angle, smaller terrain.

A layer of facets, including the 2/13 surface hoar, is now buried 10-18" deep, and the 2/8 crust is down 12-20". The weak layer exists on most slopes. It's been most problematic first on southerly aspects, and more recently, where it's been buried under stiff wind-drifted slabs. About 2ft below the surface, you'll find a more stout, thicker crust with additional weak snow adjacent to it. Upper elevations will likely have a greater separation between crusts, with potentially more weak layers.

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