Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Triggering a large avalanche breaking in buried weak layers is still a concern in the Summit Lake area. Additionally, a bump in east winds today could build some small wind slabs in the upper elevations. Both of these avalanche concerns would be found in steep high elevation slopes where wind loading has, or is, occurring.

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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    After a quiet weekend weather-wise, ridgetop winds should be on the rise today. They are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range with stronger gusts from the east. With only a few inches of loose snow on the surface, any new wind slab is likely to be small (4-10" or so). What will remain the larger concern is triggering an avalanche up to 2-3' deep in a steep wind loaded bowl that breaks in buried weak layers. 

    For anyone headed out to the Summit Lake area, know that upper elevation wind loaded terrain is where these avalanche issues are. New wind slabs should be easy to identify by looking for newly wind drifted snow and shooting cracks in the snow under you. It will be much harder to identify those buried weak layers that could cause a large and dangerous avalanche. Listening for a whumpf would be the most likely sign of instability but with these 'persistent slab' issues no signs of instability could be be seen before an avalanche is triggered. Tricky.

    The good news is it does look like these layers are gaining strength, which means it's less likely a person would trigger a big avalanche. Yet, we should still be wary of those big loaded bowls. It was less than a week ago that the Holiday storm overloaded the snowpack in Summit and triggered several large avalanches. This indicates those layers could still be an issue.

    Cornice Fall:  Along ridgelines be on the lookout for large cornices that developed during the stormy weather over the past week. These can catch people by surprise by failing much further back from the ridge than expected. Be sure to give them a wide berth as you travel along ridgetops, and spend as little time as possible traveling below them.

    Crown of a natural avalanche on the west side of Silvertip, just below the cloud. The top of Manitoba is in the foreground. This avalanche occurred during the stormy weather beetween Dec 20 and 24th and likely involved a buried weak layer. 

    Photo: Mary Gianotti

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