Avalanche forecast

Newberry

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Triggering avalanches in terrain where snow has recently been wind loaded will be likely on Sunday, as we see the arrival of a few more inches of snow through the night Saturday. This will mostly be seen at elevations near and above treeline on North to East facing aspects. Look out for smooth, pillowed snow surfaces- this is where these instabilities are likely to exist. Test low angle (<30 degree) and low consequence slopes before stepping up to any steep and hazardous terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    On Saturday there was ample evidence that strong wind transport occured throughout this recent storm system. While the lower weather station near Paulina Lake only showed around 3 inches of new snow between Friday morning and Saturday night, I observed significantly more than this at higher elevations. Wind transfer can result in up to 5x more snow accumulation, and wind slabs up to 20 inches thick were found off the summit ridge at 7900 ft.  While Saturday morning saw a small break in storm systems, weather gradually ramped up to moderate west winds and steady snowfall by mid-afternoon. I expect to see these wind slabs only increase in size and reactivity with this latest winter weather advisory forecasted to go through Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

    (12/14/2024)

    As this photo from of the Paulina summit road on shows, wind transported snow is still possible in open areas below treeline.

    Photo: Ryan Marvin

Avalanche Discussion

We have been observing weaker snow with faceting characteristics underneath the most recent rain crust (30-50cm below surface) in isolated terrain in the Newberry area, which has produced inconsistent stability test results. This is something to be aware of, as triggering a slab on this deeper weak layer could result in avalanches larger in size. 

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