Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Update: Down graded the avalanche danger rating to reflect lower than expected precipitation totals. A spring storm should slightly increase the avalanche danger Monday night and Tuesday. The greatest hazard is in wind-loaded areas and in places where the new snow is warm and sticky. Some avalanches could entrain some of the recent snow and grow large enough to bury you.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    While the storm totals don't look that impressive, strong winds should easily drift any snow into firmer and thicker slabs. Blowing snow, textured surfaces, and sharp wind lips point toward potentially loaded slopes. Given the gusty nature of these winds, some slabs may form well below ridgelines or along the sides of gullies and other mid-slope features. If you see evidence of wind affected snow lower in the terrain, expect the problem to be bigger and harder to manage as you ascend. 

    Wind slabs can be tricky to assess. Small slopes give you some indication of how they may react. However, if they are firm and you aren’t sinking through, give these harder slabs a wide berth. They can break above you.

    (1/7/2024)

    Example: Textured surfaces, drifts, and wind lips point toward potential wind slabs. 

    Photo: Willie Webster

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    It’s spring, and wet avalanches can take on many shapes and forms. Be leery of any slope where you find wet sticky snow regardless of aspect, elevation, weather, or time of day. 

    Near and just above the rain-snow line, you may encounter heavy thick new snow. This elevation band is often most reactive during and immediately following storms. Frequently it doesn’t take much to warm the surface and push it over the edge. These slides can entrain snow as they descend, and once they get rolling, can run the entire length of a slope. While they can be easier to predict and manage, don’t let one catch you off guard, particularly above cliffs or creeks. 

    The sun could come out and temperatures spike in the afternoon. If this happens, you may see a barrage of rollerballs and wet loose slides. These avalanches will be most common on E-S-W aspects near and below rocky faces. Pay attention to what’s above you and limit the time you spend under this overhead hazard.

    (3/17/2024)

    Example: You could see natural wet loose avalanche primarily below cliffs and rocky faces like this. 

    Photo: Willie Webster

Avalanche Discussion

Dynamic springtime weather could cause significant swings in the avalanche danger by elevation, aspect, and time of day. With most of the storm occuring Monday night, we expect the most hazardous conditions overnight and into the morning. However, clearing skies and warming temperatures could produce a second round of avalanches later in the day. At lower elevations, there shouldn’t be enough new snow or rain to pose any significant problem.

During this storm, we’re mostly concerned about the snow above the Early April Crust (EAC). Slides could entrain any of this recent snow, or in some isolated cases, even fail within it. Pior to this storm, you’d generally find the EAC about 6 inches (15cm) below the surface near WA Pass. Deeper in the snowpack, you can still identify older layers. We haven’t seen avalanches failing deeper in quite some time. However,on shaded aspects the mountains and snowpack haven’t fully transitioned to spring. There could still be a few surprises as the hills shed their winter coat. Don’t linger in runouts of large paths or where cornices and snow still cling to cliffs and ridges.

Regions covered