Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A notable and  large slab avalanche was observed yesterday. A few other small slab avalanches have been observed in recent days, otherwise, we have to look all the way back to last weekend to see another recorded large slab avalanche. This persistent slab avalanche problem is showing few obvious signs of instability and it appears there are fewer locations to human trigger this avalanche problem. However, this problem will not go away and it can easily catch you off guard with an avalanche large enough to bury you. Careful snowpack assessment is necessary if you intend to play in steep terrain on the northern half of the compass. You can choose lower angled slopes or head to southerly aspects to reduce your chances of triggering a large avalanche. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    On northerly and easterly aspects, you can trigger a dangerous slab avalanche that breaks up to several feet thick on weak faceted snow that was buried last month. Slabs can be triggered remotely from below or adjacent slopes. Collapsing and cracking are clear signs of instability, although direct feedback on this problem has become less frequent. The more likely areas to trigger this avalanche problem may be where the total snowpack height is between 1 and 2.5 meters deep, or near trigger points like where the total snowpack thins near rock outcrops for example. When in doubt, head for lower consequence terrain or slope angles in the lower 30-degree range and less. 

    This large slab avalanche is believed to have been remotely triggered on 3/18. 

Avalanche Discussion

The total snowpack height near the crown of yesterday's large slab avalanche was around 2 meters. That is a below-average snowpack height for the Ruby Range and draws attention to the idea that you may be more likely to trigger a notable avalanche from specific slopes with a below-average snowpack depth when compared to the other terrain around that same area. This observation from Thursday highlights another area in the Ruby Range where the observers encountered an overall deep snowpack. We have fewer recent observations coming out of the SE Mountains to draw direct comparisons. In the SE mountains, you will more commonly find a total snowpack depth that is shallower than the snowpack found in NW Mountains. Where slabs are thinner it is easier for the weight of a human to affect buried weak layers in the snowpack. Otherwise, we can generalize the areas that you are more likely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche across the forecast zones as, slopes with a below-average snowpack depth compared to other slopes in that area, and from common trigger points. 

Some form of wet avalanche problem will develop today, however, these wet avalanche conditions are not expected to reach highlighted criteria. Loose wet avalanches would become possible on steep slopes where you find dry snow that is becoming wet for the first time, or where you find several inches of wet snow. A small wet slab was also observed yesterday just above the Kebler Pass Rd. Similar wet slab avalanche conditions are expected to be very isolated across the forecast area after last night's sold freeze and with high temperatures remaining below 40 degrees at 11,000ft.  

And don’t forget, the 48th annual Al Johnson Memorial Telemark Ski Race is this Saturday, March 19 at Crested Butte Mountain Resort. A portion of the proceeds from the race will go to the Crested Butte Avalanche Center. Additional Information can be found here.

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