Avalanche forecast

Maritime

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate above 3000'.  Human triggered avalanches are possible 1-2 feet in depth that involves new snow from last week's storm. Natural avalanches are unlikely.  The hazard is low below 3000'.  In this area the snowpack was saturated with rain and has since refrozen and gained strength.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday. The next forecast will be available 12/11.  It is possible the hazard may increase during this time as a return to warm and wet weather is forecasted for Monday and Tuesday.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The main avalanche concern for today continues to be the new snow that fell between 12/3-12/6 above 3000'.  This snow was deposited on top of previously wind damaged surfaces such as sastrugi, low friction wind board and bare ground.  Fair-Good bonding has been observed at this interface and is expected to improve as there were no persistent grains at the surface when snowfall began.  Today's weather will bring a slow increase in temperatures and light precipitation that is not expected to elevate the avalanche hazard.

    The most recent storm had a very dynamic freezing line that has created multiple density changes within the storm snow as well as a rain crust in the middle of the storm slab that exists in some areas up to 4000' and maybe higher.  These density changes have the possibility to act as  a failure plane.  Areas near ridgetops that have deeper slabs due to wind redistribution during the storm will have more stress on these density changes.

    The storm slab that is in place will likely vary not only with elevation, but also place to place.  Extended column tests (click links for examples) as well as hasty hand shear tests will be  useful tools today to assess the sensitivity of the new snow.  Jumping on small incosequential test slopes are also a quick way to gather more information in the area you choose to travel.  Watch for red flags such as recent natural avalanche activity, shooting cracks and collapsing.  If any of these are present it is wise to avoid steep terrain.

    (12/6/2024) Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Numerous Glide Cracks exist on the North facing Buttressess of Nicks through Cracked Ice between 2000'-3000'.  Identify where these are if you decide to travel in this area and avoid traveling on or below them.  Glide cracks act differently than all the other avalanche problems and can fail even when the general hazard is low and without signs of instability.  Stability of Glide cracks has more to do with the relationship with the friction at the ground and less so to do with the weather that is effecting the surface like other avalanche problems.  Little is known about assessing glide cracks, so travel advice is simple: Avoid them.

    Numerous Glide Cracks on the Cracked Ice Buttress

    Photo: Kyle Sobek

Avalanche Discussion

Want to learn more? Check out our new Weather History tab.  You can find this when you open up the full forecast.

Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: Natural avalanche activity in the previous storm was limited to wet loose activity in steep terrain. No slab avalanches were observed.

 Three Pigs (Beaver Slide) D2.5 South/Southeast aspect

 Nicks D2 NW aspect/ ~3500'

Goodwills  D2 N aspect/~4500'.  This slide may have been associated with cornice fall as well.

Skies cleared yesterday and revealed limited avalanche activity besides wet loose slide in steep terrain.  Some of the wet loose activity was fairly large with no stepdowns observed.  This doesn't rule out the possibility for deeper instabilities, but is a good sign.  

A decrease in temperatures has caused a rain crust to form at the surface up to 3000', increasing strength below 3k.  Above this new snow depths are variable due to storm wind redistribution but are generally 1-2 feet.  Nicks snotel reported storm totals of 18 inches and the 12 mile wx station received 2.42" of rain during the 12/3-6 period.  Human triggered avalanches remain possible today that occur at density changes within the storm slab.  Temperatures will be slowly increasing through the day along with light snow possible.  This weather is not expected to increase the avalanche hazard today.

If you travel in the Continental zone today, exercise extra caution as there is very limited field data from this location.  It is unclear as to whether deep slab instabilities exist, however it is a possibility.

If you get out in the mountains today consider leaving an observation to help increase the understanding of current snowpack stability.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 12/7 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow December Snowfall Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0 0       Thompson Pass    0 0 N/O    18    120 Nicks    0 0    40    18 N/O 46 Mile    0   0   14    3 N/O

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