Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Strong winds today will increase the chances of natural and human triggered avalanches on buried weak layers 2-4' deep. Fresh wind slabs up to 1' deep will also be forming above treeline. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely on slopes with active wind loading. We recommend a cautious approach to decision-making due to the potential for triggering very large avalanches on buried weak layers.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Chugach National Forest Motorised Use:  Turnagain Pass and Snug Harbor are the only areas in the Chugach National Forest that received enough snow to open, all other areas remain closed. Low snow cover hazards exist at low elevations, such as open creeks and alders. We have limited information for these zones and recommend extra caution if riding on steeper slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    The return of strong winds will add load onto buried weak layers in high elevation start zones, increasing the likelihood of very large natural and human triggered avalanches.  The snowpack depth is highly variable in Summit Lake and areas with a thin snowpack tend to be the easiest places for a person to trigger an avalanche on a buried weak layer. The extent of the avalanche activity this week indicates that weak layers are widespread at mid and upper elevations. We urge a cautious approach to decision-making while giving the snowpack time to gain strength.

    Deep persistent avalanche problems are difficult to manage because they often provide little feedback but remain dangerous longer than expected. Patience is the key to managing deep persistent avalanche problems. The only way to avoid the potential to trigger an avalanche on a buried weak layer is to stick to low angle terrain. 

     

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Another round of wind and light snow is arriving today, forming fresh wind slabs up to 1' deep at upper elevations. Triggering a smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down to a deeper weak layer and cause a much larger avalanche. Wind slabs are typically found above treeline along exposed ridgelines or convex features. Keep an eye out for active wind transport, shooting cracks, or hollow feeling pillows of snow to identify areas with wind slabs. Digging quick hand pits and jumping on small test slopes are good ways to evaluate how sensitive wind slabs are to the weight of a skier or rider. 

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