Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will increase to HIGH today as strong east winds are forecast to gust 70+ mph. Wind slabs 2 to 4’ deep will be easy for a human to trigger above 2,500’ on wind loaded slopes. There is also an unlikely chance a human could trigger a large avalanche 4 to 6’ deep on a buried layer of weak snow. Traveling in avalanche terrain is not recommended on slopes that are exposed to the wind.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    New wind slabs 2 to 4’ deep will be easy to trigger on slopes exposed to the wind. The storm is forecast to deliver strong ridge top winds out of the east averaging 20 to 40 mph with 70+ mph gusts and around 5" of snow before the sun begins to set. Sunburst has already recorded 71 mph gusts! As the wind ramps up in the afternoon the avalanche danger will increase. This will make it easier for a human to trigger fresh wind slabs and increase the likelihood of natural avalanches. If you do get out today, avoid slopes that are being loaded with wind blown snow. As the avalanche danger increases weather conditions may warrant avoiding avalanche terrain above 2,500' altogether. 

    If the winds verify, slopes sheltered from the wind below 2,500’ will be the safest option. Keep in mind that at mid elevations wind slabs may also be forming in areas exposed to the wind. You can probe for wind slabs by feeling firm snow over soft snow. Shooting cracks underneath you is also a clue you are traveling on a wind slab. Approach slopes cautiously looking for these clues. Be prepared to change your travel plan choosing lower angle slopes as conditions become more dangerous.

    Cornice: Large cornices that formed from the storm last weekend will continue to grow today. This storm may be the tipping point for these to fall and trigger a natural avalanche above you. Limit exposure under slopes where this overhead hazard exists.

    Dry Loose Avalanches: There is a chance for a human to trigger a dry loose avalanche on steep slopes. Natural dry loose avalanches were observed in Turnagain Pass and Summit Lake yesterday. Watch out for these as they can carry you off cliffs and into terrain traps. 

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    There is a small chance that a human could trigger a large avalanche 4 to 6’ deep on a buried layer of weak snow. This is unlikely to happen but it may be more likely in areas where the snowpack is thinner. Clues that the snowpack is thinner are near exposed rocks such as ridges and wind scoured slopes. 

    The snowpack is generally thinner on the mountains south of Sunburst. We also have limited information from these zones so more caution is recommended if you head south in Turnagain Pass.  

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