Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human-triggered avalanches are occurring daily. Since December 26th, there have been 43 human-triggered avalanches! Many of these avalanches are large enough to bury and kill a person. Avalanches are also being remotely triggered from hundreds of feet away. These dangerous avalanche conditions require conservative terrain selection. A starting point can be simple avoidance, such as skiing and riding on lower-angled slopes (less than 30 degrees) that are not connected to steeper slopes above, or riding on lower elevation southerly facing slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Soft slabs averaging 1 to 2 feet thick in sheltered terrain and larger in wind-loaded terrain will be most sensitive to triggers where they formed over fragile facets, collapsible crusts, or surface hoar layers on west, north, and east aspects.  Slab behavior is becoming more challenging as slabs stiffen and thicken, with dozens of recent remote triggers and slabs propagating wider across terrain features.  Cracking and collapsing are blatant warning signs to travel on slope angles less than 30 degrees without overhead hazards, though not all slopes will give obvious feedback.  

    This large avalanche was remotely triggered from the ridge above. Red Coon Bowl, 12/31. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2

    A strong to extreme wind event occurred on Sunday night and into Monday. The wind direction during that time varied from the southwest to the northwest, and there was plenty of available snow to transport to the lee sides of terrain features, such as below corniced ridgelines, leeward rollovers, and cross-loaded gullies. However, the more significant concern is that a triggered wind slab could step down and trigger a larger persistent slab described above.  Where this avalanche problem doesn't overlap the persistent slab avalanche problem, it is recommended to evaluate wind-loaded terrain and consider if a wind slab is still capable of releasing. 

    An example of a slab avalanche that broke below a leeward ridgeline from last weekend.

Avalanche Discussion

The dangerous avalanche conditions are blatantly clear when you read through the observations and look at all the recent avalanche activity. There are still places to get out and enjoy the snow on New Year's Day. If you are not avoiding avalanche terrain, then travel in an area where you feel confident that you can manage the terrain characteristics, such as slope angles and subtle changes in aspect. These avalanche conditions will persist for some time, as the persistent weak layers are large-grained and will not heal anytime soon. The slabs above will continue to gain some strength, and that may reduce how sensitive persistent slabs are to human triggering, but those more cohesive slabs could also lead to wider propagation of a triggered avalanche. 

Since December 26th, 159 avalanches have been recorded in our avalanche database. More avalanches are likely to be documented daily so that number will grow. Persistent weak layers are the most widespread on west, north, and east aspects, with some upper elevation southeast aspects potentially harboring those persistent weak layers as well. Click here to see a distribution of that avalanche activity around the compass rose. That compass rose also includes some non-persistent avalanche types, such as old wind slabs. Low-angled southerly facing slopes can produce audible collapses; however, as slope angles increase, those buried crusts become thicker and stronger since they face the sun more directly. 

Regions covered