Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Northerly and westerly winds are forming thicker slabs on the lee sides of terrain features. Wind-loaded terrain has become the most likely area to trigger a slab avalanche today. You may encounter recent wind-loading on the lee sides of ridgelines or in unusual locations like cross-loaded terrain features lower on a slope. Small, dry loose avalanches are also occurring in some steep terrain that has stayed protected from the wind. Carefully consider the snowpack structure and potential terrain consequences before traveling in avalanche terrain.  You can avoid avalanche problems by riding on wind-sheltered southerly facing slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Slabs up to several feet thick can be triggered where they formed over well-developed facets and collapsible crusts on west, north, and east aspects. Additionally, heavily wind-loaded slabs can be triggered above buried crusts on high-elevation, southerly aspects.  Slab behavior is challenging with variable and deceptive feedback, remote triggering potential, and wide propagation across terrain features.  Terrain with recent wind-loading appears to be the most problematic. You can reliably avoid the problem on slope angles less than 30 degrees without steeper slopes above you, and most mid to low-elevation southerly aspects lack the problem.  

    This persistent slab in the Anthracites appears to be triggered by a rider on 1/18/2025. Note how the slab released on the lee side of a tree fence and convex roller that had been previously cross-loaded.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    Periods of blowing snow have been observed for several days. The wind direction earlier this week was from the north before blowing from the west last night. 12,000ft weather stations have recorded average wind speeds in the 20's and 30's with gusts into the 40's and 50's. There isn't a large volume of snow available for transport, so slab formation is expected to mostly be small. Wind Slabs can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas.

    This wind slab was intentionally triggered by a ski cut in the Irwin Area on Tuesday, 1/21.

Avalanche Discussion

This week's winds are wreaking havoc on the snow quality in some areas while also forming hard slabs on the lee sides of terrain features. We have seen multiple wind events from the north over the last week, while the wind direction notably changed and began blowing from the west last night. Perhaps this change in wind direction was able to find a little more snow available for transport. We can't rule out the possibility of a natural avalanche on slopes that are seeing active wind-loading. However, most of the active wind-loading should have already occurred by now, and there shouldn't be much snow left for transport. These newly formed hard slabs have become the areas that are the most concerning for triggering a slab avalanche today. 

The possibility of triggering dry loose avalanches on steep, northerly facing slopes has also been present for some time. The most recent sluffs that stand out have been observed in the climax chutes, where a couple of dry loose avalanches have run naturally. These avalanches have produced some sizable debris piles after accumulating additional mass while running through the terrain. This observation also noted a dry loose avalanche problem last week on Mt Axtell. Not all slopes are producing sluffs, as snow surfaces are wind-affected in some cases, or the snow surface has simply not become weak enough to lose all its cohesion.

Regions covered