West Slopes South

Thursday will be a transition day as we move from warm and sunny to cold and snowy. Traveling on firm and icy slopes will likely be your most significant hazard until the snow flies. Once the storm arrives, expect avalanche hazard to become dangerous quickly.

You can say goodbye to the warm and sunny weather we've experienced for the better half of the past month. Filtered sunshine should eventually give way to increasing clouds and wind as we prepare for a winter storm on Thursday night. Snow is expected to be measured in feet this weekend, stressing our snowpack and quickly raising the avalanche hazard. We've had some messaging about blocks of snow falling off rocky ledges, cornice collapses, or icefall in recent days. While that threat has lessened due to lowering temps and the loss of sunshine, it may not be entirely eliminated. Keep an eye on what's above you.

If you've read the avalanche forecast or been in the mountains sometime in the last month, you'll know that weak surfaces abound throughout our forecast region. In the West South, we've been in and out of springlike conditions with sun-exposed slopes going through a melt-freeze cycle and shaded slopes "faceting out," aka getting weak. Various other surfaces are mixed in, including breakable crust, wind-pressed snow, and firm icy crusts. Under tree cover, challenging travel conditions exist due to irregular frozen surfaces. Take your time and bring the right tools to navigate these hazards safely on Thursday.

Now that the much-anticipated winter storm is on our doorstep, it's time for us all to get our heads back in the avalanche game. This is a unique snowpack setup for the Cascades, and there will be plenty of avalanches this weekend. The lack of a discernable pattern for the distribution of weak snow makes it difficult to pinpoint aspects or elevations that will be problematic. So we want to hear from all of you. If you've never submitted an observation before, this is the time. We want pictures and information from every nook and cranny of our zone. Let us know what kind of surfaces you're finding on Thursday. As we move into the weekend, we need to know how reactive the new snow is and where. If you don't want to blow up your spot or are feeling insecure about your observation skills, submit your observation anonymously.