Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 9 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

While avalanches remain unlikely in most areas, the avalanche danger has increased to MODERATE due to a stubborn persistent slab problem that exists in specific areas. Human triggered avalanches may be possible today in terrain where harder snow exists on top of a persistent weak layer of looser weaker snow. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify areas where slabs may exist on top of a persistent weak layer. 

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Despite the lack of new snow the snowpack continues to change as it sits on the ground. The layer of weak sugary snow (facets) below the surface continues to lose strength. In most places, little to no slab layer exists above this persistent weak layer and avalanches remain unlikely. However, in some specific areas where a slab layer does rest on top of the persistent weak layer, evidence indicates that the snowpack has lost enough strength for small human-triggered persistent slab avalanches to become possible. These areas include places on NW-N-NE aspects where hard wind slabs exist in near and above treeline terrain and some isolated areas in below treeline terrain where smaller softer slabs may exist. Persistent slabs avalanches can be triggered from the bottom of a slope or other connected slopes. They often break above the person who triggers them and may fail after several people have used a slope. They often do not fail until the trigger has fully committed to the slope. 

    Clues like whumphing and collapsing, shooting cracks, hollow sounding snow, or digging into the snowpack to find a loose weak layer of snow below a harder layer of snow can indicate that conditions conducive to persistent slab avalanches may exist. Sometimes these clues may be difficult to find. Despite the fact that these kinds of avalanches should remain small, they could still have serious consequences in areas with terrain traps or if they carried a person into/over the numerous shallowly buried or exposed obstacles. Avoid steep slopes where slabs may exist on top of loose weak snow. Choosing sheltered terrain where no slabs exist will avoid this problem and provide softer snow to recreate on. 

     

Avalanche Discussion

* Whumphing has occurred on Black Butte (near Carson Pass) and on Deep Creek Peak (north of Squaw) in the last 2 days as skiers caused the weak layer to collapse below a slab. Yesterday, tests yielded unstable results on Rubicon Peak as well in areas where hard wind slabs sat on top of a layer of weak sugary snow. 

* Variable snow surface conditions ranging from wind scoured snow and firm icy crusts on exposed slopes to some lingering areas of soft unconsolidated snow on sheltered below treeline northerly aspects exist.

* Northerly facing terrain above 8000 ft in the Mt. Rose area and along the Sierra Crest north of Emerald Bay holds the best snow coverage. Overall less snow cover exists south of Emerald Bay, but decent coverage exists above 8,500 ft. on northerly aspects. Coverage becomes patchy on other aspects and large areas of bare ground exist on many southerly aspects at all elevations.

Regions covered