Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Light rain and high elevation snow will maintain elevated avalanche hazard as we enter the holiday weekend. You can still trigger large avalanches in wet snow that may run long distances on slick crusts. Avoid steep terrain where you sink deeply into wet, heavy snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Wet slabs are notoriously hard to forecast. They sometimes release after peak precipitation with sustained warm temperatures. The Green Lake SNOTEL weather station is still recording 35°F temperatures. Warm temperatures, precipitation, and a layered snowpack with a thick crust from Christmas is a perfect setup for these destructive avalanches. While you will be more likely to trigger these in locations where you find heavy wet snow that you sink deeply into, they may also release naturally and run into low angle terrain at lower elevations. Avoid traveling on steep slopes where you may trigger one of these large avalanches, and be cautious of steep open terrain above you.

    You will likely see smaller wet loose avalanches at lower elevations where less new snow rests on the Christmas Crust. 

    (1/13/2023)

    An example of  wet slab avalanche that occurred during this storm in  Tumwater Canyon.  

    Photo: Harlen Sheppard

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    While wet avalanches are taking center stage, at the highest elevations, you may be able to find some dry snow. Most of this storm snow is likely moist and relatively unreactive. However, winds will begin to pick up potentially drifting snow into deeper, more sensitive slabs. You could trigger these wind slabs in steep ridgeline terrain above 6000ft. You can recognize wind slabs by their pillow-like form and potentially hollow sound. Textured surfaces and drifts behind trees and rocks can also point to likely wind slab locations. If you make your way through the soggy low elevations, keep your slope angles low or stick to wind sheltered areas. 

    (1/4/2023)

    A very shallow wind pocket failed. Notice the textured surface and how it looks "fat" compared to the surrounding terrain.

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

Last week, I traveled into the Soup Creek area. Most notably, I found deep pockets of wind-drifted snow and observed active wind transport along ridgelines. In some places, up to 3 feet of snow rests over the Christmas Crust. I traveled on multiple aspects and elevations around this zone and was able to locate buried surface hoar in sheltered areas on northerly aspects in meadows and sparsely treed slopes. This weak layer was typically buried 8-10 inches below the snow surface. This warm storm likely destroyed this layer in most locations, but the potential still exists for large wet avalanches to fail on this weak interface. The neighboring East Central zone reported numerous human-triggered avalanches on these weak layers in the past week, including very large wet avalanches on Thursday and Friday. So as this warm weather continues, it is essential to know that this is a complex and dangerous snowpack that is still adjusting to a significant new load. With no observations since this storm, we are unsure what locations have avalanched and what slopes may be waiting for the right trigger. Give the snowpack time to adjust to this large load and cooling temperatures to help freeze the soggy wet snow before stepping out onto steep slopes.

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