Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Strong winds and snowfall will increase the avalanche danger throughout the day. Anticipate dangerous conditions to develop on wind-loaded terrain features and northerly through east aspects in wind-sheltered locations.  Recent human-triggered (1,2,3) avalanches on north and east aspects indicate some slopes were already teetering near failure, so expect this round of snowfall to worsen the hazard and possibly produce large natural avalanches.  You can reduce your avalanche risk by avoiding wind-drifted features and sticking to lower-angled slopes without steep terrain above when traveling on suspect aspects.  Lower-elevation sunny slopes are less likely to have problematic weak layers but look for cracking and collapsing to clue you into any developing issues in the storm snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Weak layers in the upper snowpack caused natural avalanche activity during the last storm and a string of human-triggered avalanches each day since.  A layer of facets and facet-crust combination exist 1 to 3 feet deep and represent the most likely place for a Persistent Slab to release.  Avalanches could release naturally from wind loading or be remotely triggered below or adjacent to steep slopes.  As snow accumulates, the potential avalanche size will increase from recent days.  The best way to manage this problem is through lower-angled terrain and managing your exposure to overhead hazards.  

    A remotely triggered avalanche from Sunday on the northeast slopes of Schuylkill Ridge.  Expect slopes like this to become dangerous today, with the avalanche size increasing as snow accumulates through out the day.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Snowfall and wind will likely build fresh drifts on leeward terrain features throughout the day. Winds start the day from the southwest and then shift to a more westerly direction. Avalanches in the freshly drifted snow could step down and release weak layers in the upper snowpack where the Wind Slab and Persistent Slab problems overlap.  Expect to find wind-loaded terrain below ridges, underneath cornices, and cross-loaded into gullies.  Cracking in the new snow indicates you have found sensitive wind-blown snow.

    A shallow Wind Slab from Monday.  Expect slabs to grow in size as snowfall and wind continue to load leeward aspects.

    (3/17/2025) Photo: Eric Murrow

Avalanche Discussion

Another round of snowfall and wind will increase the avalanche danger throughout the day.  Storm totals may exceed 12 inches for some locations during daylight hours.  The best way to predict how this storm impacts conditions is to look at recent avalanche activity.  Last week's storm accumulated on a mix of facets and crust-facet combinations on northerly and easterly aspects.  Natural avalanches ran during the storm, and human-triggered avalanches occurred each subsequent day (Saturday, Sunday, Sunday, and Monday).  Most avalanche activity occurred in the Northwest Mountains due to dramatically larger storm totals.  The Southeast Mountains generally fell short of forming a slab above the upper snowpack weak layers, but that may change with this round of snow.

Today, it seems very probable that a new Wind Slab problem will occur on leeward terrain in both forecast areas if the weather forecast verifies.  The bigger uncertainty is how Persistent Weak layers respond in each forecast zone.  With deeper snow totals forecasted in the Northwest Mountains, it's more likely for Persistent Weak layers to increase in sensitivity at all elevations and possibly release naturally on drifted slopes.  One of these avalanches would grow to a deadly size.  In the Southeast Mountains, there is uncertainty about the increase in danger at lower elevations.  The danger rating remains MODERATE below treeline, with the speculation that Persistent Weak layers below treeline will not dramatically increase in sensitivity.  Cracking and collapsing is a clear indication that conditions may be worse than forecasted.

Use increased caution as you travel on and near suspect aspects where well documented Persistent Weak layers exist.  A surprise avalanche could easily grow large enough to bury and kill you on leeward terrain, highlighted by the Persistent Slab rose.

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