Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It has been three weeks since the avalanche danger has dropped below considerable because of a weak layer of buried surface hoar causing widespread large human triggered avalanches. This layer is now buried 2-3' deep and remains our primary concern. The only way to avoid this problem is by sticking to low angle slopes and avoiding steeper terrain overhead. Surface snow issues including wind slabs up to 1' deep and sun-triggered avalanches within the new snow are also a concern today.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Come find us at the Seattle Ridge motorized parking lot on Saturday, March 22 for our annual Turnagain Pass Avalanche Awareness Day! We will be there with Alaska Mining and Diving Supply and the Alaska Avalanche School to chat about avalanches and current conditions and to hang out with the good people of the southcentral Alaska winter community. AMDS will have demo snowmachines, and we’ll be holding down the grill and the fire pit. Stop by anytime from noon until 4:00 p.m. Details Here.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Today promises to be a beautiful day in the mountains. Unfortunately, we are still dealing with a sleeping dragon in the snowpack which has caused many human triggered avalanches in the past month. The Valentine's Day buried surface hoar is 2-3'+ deep and has reached a point where it is becoming more stubborn for a person to trigger, but if you hit the wrong spot the potential to trigger a very large avalanche still exists. This is a classic example of a wicked learning environment, where you likely won't see any signs of instability before triggering an avalanche. Even if a slope already has tracks on it that does not guarantee it is safe.

    The only way to avoid the potential for triggering a very large avalanche is to stick to low angle terrain and avoid slopes with steep terrain above. This type of weak layer is commonly triggered remotely, which means you could trigger an avalanche from a low angle slope onto adjacent steeper terrain. We recognize that this conservative messaging is getting old and folks are keen to get into steeper terrain but this type of weak layer is notorious for taking a long time to heal.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Lingering wind slabs from gusty easterly winds yesterday are also a concern at upper elevations. These could be up to 1' deep and are most likely along ridgelines, cross-loaded gullies, and rollovers. Keep an eye out for shooting cracks or hollow feeling pillows of snow to identify locations with wind slabs. 

    The sunny conditions today could also trigger surface snow avalanches on steep solar aspects (east, south, west), which could be large enough to be dangerous to a person. Sun-triggered avalanches might be limited to loose snow on the surface or could trigger small slab avalanches within the new snow from the past few days. These smaller wind slabs and sun-triggered new snow avalanches have the potential to step down to a deeper weak layer and cause a much larger avalanche.  

    Additional concerns include cornice fall along ridgelines and glide avalanches. The best way to avoid these hazards is to minimize your time spent underneath corniced ridgelines and glide cracks and if you are traveling along a ridgeline give cornices a wide berth. 

     

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