Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We are continuing to monitor a buried weak layer about 2 to 3' deep that has the potential to cause very large human triggered avalanches. To avoid this weak layer you can stick to low angle terrain or to reduce your exposure you can avoid traveling on slopes with terrain traps below. With springtime temperatures and sun this week we have seen an uptick in wet snow avalanche activity, including glide avalanches, releasing naturally throughout the region. These are a normal part of the transition to a spring snowpack but can produce large avalanches that run far downslope and impact trails or other high-traffic areas that are normally safe. 

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Sean Sullivan, Cory Davis, and Travis Temple will be hosting a free avalanche awareness and rescue training event in memory of Tucker Challans on Saturday, March 29, at Alaska West Air in Nikiski. See the flyer in the media gallery below for more information.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    On Mt. Eva yesterday, Andrew found the 2/14 buried surface hoar about 2' deep. The layer was stubborn to initiate in his pit but once it failed the weak layer showed concerning signs of still being able to produce large avalanches. This is the same weak layer involved in the fatal avalanche accident on Seattle Ridge last Saturday which has caused a lot of human triggered avalanches in the Turnagain Pass area. While we haven't seen much avalanche activity in the Seward and Lost Lake area on this weak layer we are still very concerned about the potential for large human triggered avalanches. 

    The best way to avoid this issue is to stick to lower angle terrain and avoid steep slopes overhead. If you decide to venture into steeper terrain you can minimize your exposure by choosing slopes without terrain traps underneath. Terrain features like gullies, cliffs, trees, or abrupt transitions from steep to flat terrain can all act as terrain traps by increasing the potential burial depth if you trigger an avalanche. In general, we recommend a conservative mindset while we are dealing with this potentially dangerous weak layer in the snowpack. 

    (3/27/2025)

    Sample of the 2/14 buried surface hoar.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The combination of warm temperatures and partly sunny skies the past few days has accelerated the transition to a spring snowpack. Across the region, an uptick in glide avalanche activity over the past few days is another sign that the snowpack is feeling the effects of the spring weather. Glide avalanches have been on our radar throughout the season, but the notable uptick in glide avalanche activity is a good reminder to carefully scan slopes above for signs of glide cracks and try to avoid spending time underneath. These massive avalanches release randomly and would be very dangerous to be caught in. 

    Wet loose avalanches have also been releasing naturally on steep solar aspects (east, south, west) as they heat up later in the day. This might not be as prominent today if cloudy conditions prevail, but depending on how thick the cloud layer is greenhouse effect can heat up the snowpack even without direct sun. On big slopes, wet loose avalanches can grow large as they run downhill and create a large debris pile if they run far.

    Cornice fall is another normal part of the transition to a spring snowpack and can happen randomly while cornices are heating up in the sun. Today is expected to be cloudier than the past few days, but it is still good practice to avoid spending time underneath cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling along ridgelines.

    Finally, gap winds near Seward yesterday were stronger than the rest of the forecast region and may have formed wind slabs up to 1' deep at upper elevations. Based on recent observations there is a widespread crust on the surface of the snow that limits the amount of snow available for transport, so expect wind slabs to be isolated to specific slopes. 

    (3/27/2025)

    Wet loose avalanche triggered by cornice fall.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

Regions covered