Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist as new snow and wind continue to build storm slabs and stress persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack.  Human-triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible. Avoid being on or beneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees, giving avalanche runout zones wide berths. Conservative terrain selection is essential today as it's possible to trigger an avalanche remotely from a long distance away.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Close to 2 feet of snow and 2.45" of SWE have built slabs and loaded slopes that will continue to stress persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Near and below treeline is where you're more likely to find and impact depth hoar and faceted weak layers near the ground.  At upper elevations, faceted crusts and small-grained facet layers between harder slabs linger 3 to 5 feet below the snow surface.  Obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and long propagating shooting cracks on the surface may or may not be present in travels until it's too late.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance away.  A smaller point release or storm slab avalanche could step down into these deeper weak layers creating a very large and most likely unsurvivable avalanche.  These persistent slab avalanches could run long distances well into the flats below. 

     

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm totals this morning are close to 2 feet of snow with an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow expected during the day today. Shifting transportable winds today will continue to drift and load slopes into more reactive slabs.  These slabs have been forming on top of a variety of older surfaces prior to this storm from crusts to wind slabs and near-surface facets on northerly aspects. Storm slab avalanches may fail on the old existing surface or within density changes within the new snow. Avoid steep slopes that are actively loading. Storm slab avalanches can be large on their own and able to break widely across a slope.  In steep terrain that is more wind-sheltered, you may encounter loose snow sluffing that could be big enough to take you off your feet and bury you in a terrain trap. A smaller storm slab or loose snow avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals so far are 20 - 24" with 2.3 - 2.5  inches of SWE.  An additional 2 to 4 inches of snow is forecasted during the day with south and southeast winds expected to be light to moderate.  Lingering snow showers are expected overnight through Saturday with an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow forecasted. We'll have a slight break on Sunday before another active stretch of weather starts Monday through the middle of next week bringing more snow and wind to the mountains. 

It's been a dynamic spring storm, that started off warm, with rain up to about 9300' before snow levels dropped during the day.   Snowfall picked up yesterday afternoon through the evening as we saw strong upsloping from the rich tap of moisture hitting a backdoor cold front.  This storm came in right side up with denser heavier snow at the start and lighter lower density snow overnight. The big question mark is what the winds did last night, as it appears the anemometers are rimmed up and aren't giving the clearest of pictures. Easterly winds were forecasted overnight and it wouldn't take much wind to transport, the lower-density snow into slightly stiffer more reactive slabs for today. 

Yesterday afternoon storm slabs were becoming more reactive and we started seeing some natural avalanche activity in steeper terrain.  Although we most likely went through a period of peak instability overnight with periods of intense snowfall rates. With continued snowfall, this morning and throughout the day natural avalanches are still likely, With each significant storm we've had this season, depth hoar and faceted layers near the ground have become more reactive and we've seen natural avalanche activity on these layers.  Near and below treeline terrain is where prior to this latest storm still had a relatively shallow snowpack where these weak layers continued to linger. This latest round of snow provided a significant test to these weak layers that will need time to adjust.  

If you are planning on getting out,  come in with a conservative mindset, using cautious terrain selection to help keep you safe in the mountains. Today is not the day to step out into the avalanche terrain.   

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