San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Variable conditions exist across the San Francisco Peaks and surrounding area with higher elevations wind stripped or wind hardened.  Pockets of instability may remain in micro terrain features.  Most wind slabs have hardened or stabilized, but increased temperatures are causing the snowpack to change rapidly.  Skiers and riders should be aware of hollow sounding wind loaded areas and possible small wet loose events on south facing slopes at lower elevations. 

Low hazard does not mean no hazard and backcountry travelers are encouraged to be aware of rapid changes in the snowpack caused by today's weather.

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This week's weather is drastically changing the snowpack with increased temperatures at lower elevations and wind at higher elevations being the dominant forces. 

Sun crusts have formed on many east, south and west facing slopes.  At lower elevations, the south facing snowpack is shrinking quickly.  North facing slopes continue to hold snow at these lower elevations, but even this snowpack is changing rapidly.  At some elevations the snowpack is warming, causing the snowpack to weaken.  Backcountry travelers should watch for signs of instability such as wet loose events and roller balls on steeper slopes. The warming temperatures in the last few days have caused melt/freeze cycles on south facing slopes and encouraged surface melting to percolate some water into the upper layers of the snowpack.  While a significant wet/loose event will be unlikely today, in the absence of sun, some slopes have not been freezing overnight weakening the snowpack.  Travelers should use caution in areas where temperatures have remained warm.

At higher elevations wind earlier in the week in accompaniment with warming temperatures late in the week have been the dominant forces.   Early in the week wind slabs were reactive and some pits showed signs of instability in these wind loaded areas.  In some locations, particularly thinner snowpack areas, faceting was returning to lower layers of the snowpack.  These warm temperatures have weakened the snowpack possibly making some wind hardened areas more susceptible to reactivity and possibly reactivating some weak layers in the snowpack.  Travelers in these areas should anticipate drastic changes in snowpack based on aspect and elevation.

Today, a weather system will begin to further impact the snowpack. While the atmospheric river pounding northern and central California will largely continue north of the region, it will bring some inclement weather. Clouds will likely not directly affect south facing slopes, but temperatures will continue to remain warm.  There is a possibility of rain today further weakening lower elevation snowpacks.  At higher elevations wind speeds will be more significant with increasing velocity throughout the day bringing possible gusts of 50 mph by 4:00 pm.  There is little snow available for transport but some may fall from the sky with 1-3" of snow expected this evening.  Snowfall will likely not be heavy, but this new snow, combined with remaining light snow on the ground, will allow for the formation of small wind slabs in isolated terrain features such as on the leeward side of ridges and on the surface of existing wind loaded areas.