Avalanche forecast

Ogden

Issued Mar 22, 2023valid to Mar 23, 2023Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at all upper and mid-elevation slopes where periods of heavy snowfall and strong winds will create dangerous avalanche conditions today. The high winds will continue to form unstable slabs of wind-drifted snow at all mid and upper elevations. Both loose snow and slab avalanches may be possible within the different layers of new snow from the past few days.

During any periods of higher snowfall rates (greater than 1" per hour), avalanches will be easier to trigger. If the snowfall rates spike the avalanche danger is going to spike as well. Watch for any signs of instability such as cracking and sluffing.

Avalanche problems

Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
2
The bump in overnight winds plus soft snow available for transport will continue to form soft slabs of wind-drifted snow up to 20" deep. With the winds slated to remain elevated throughout the day, these slabs will only continue to grow, and become more cohesive. These slabs will be most pronounced on lee-ward-facing slopes, but such high winds can load any aspect because winds swirl and change direction as they pass through the mountains.

With new snow throughout the day slopes with any signs of wind-drifted snow, such as texture and pillow-shaped features, may become more challenging to identify. For that reason, I would approach steep terrain feature that could allow for drifting snow to accumulate as if triggering a fresh soft slab is possible.

CORNICES are not to be messed with. Limit your exposure to ridgelines near cornices, and slopes below cornices. A cornice fall could trigger a larger slab of wind-drifted snow below.

A natural shallow wind slab, similar to those we will likely see in the backcountry today, in the north Birthday Bowl from Monday. (B. Smith)
Storm Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
2
As the snowfall totals increase, the avalanche danger is going to increase as well. As of 5 AM, roughly 3-6" inches of new snow has fallen overnight and the front is predicted to have multiple periods of high snowfall rates, above 2" an hour. Across the range, the new snow has a variety of excellent bed surfaces, and new snow/old snow interfaces to slide on from the last week. Out of the wind zone you can expect to find sensitive soft slabs of new snow and fast, long-running sluffs on all aspects.

The type of avalanche, slab avalanche versus loose snow avalanche, will come down to how quickly the new snow bonds, versus how quickly the snow is falling from the sky. When the snowfall rates are higher, generally meaning greater than 1" per hour, avalanches will be easier to trigger, and more likely to become a cohesive slab. Pay attention to changing weather and increased snowfall rates.

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Recent Activity

Yesterday, Mark was riding in the Bountiful Zone and found a ton of shallow new snow avalanches that have occurred over Monday and Tuesday. While many of these seemed to fail outside the wind zone, Mark did find one interesting avalanche on a Northeast Aspect near Bountiful Peak that initially failed directly below a cornice, and then stepped down deeper, approx 18", into the snowpack on a layer of graupel. While we are not seeing widespread activity on that buried graupel layer, this avalanche is a good heads-up, that avalanches that fail in heavily loaded wind-loaded areas may break a bit deeper than just the new snow/old snow interface. Find Mark's full observation HERE.

In the Central Wasatch, we had multiple reports of easily triggered shallow soft slabs within the new snow. Most of these were approx 6-10" deep, failing on the new snow/old snow interface.

Snow and Weather

This morning, skies are overcast, it is lightly to moderately snowing, and temperatures are in the upper 20s F. Overnight the mountains received 3-6" of snow. Overnight winds increased and transitioned from southeasterly to southwesterly at speeds of 20-30 mph with gusts above 60 mph.

Today, there will be periods of heavy snowfall and graupel, with peak snowfall rates above 2" an hour. The mountains could receive 4-10" of new snow before 5 PM. Southwest winds will remain elevated, blowing 15-25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Though there may not be a true break in the storms, by Thursday morning we could see snow totals of 12-20".

A quick-hitting cold front, with additional snowfall, arrives Friday with temperatures plummeting to near 0°F. Unsettled through the weekend with a break for a few days early next week.

Additional Info

Forecaster's Corner: What does Acceptable Risk even mean?

Through an avalanche accident earlier this winter, Drew has been able to put together a clear example of what he believes defines acceptable risk. Read more on this HERE.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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