Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The start of the day may not feel all that dangerous, but look for avalanche danger to increase during the afternoon and evening hours. New snow and radical wind speeds will create reactive slabs primed for human triggering. Blowing snow and textured surfaces should help you pinpoint what slopes are loading up. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and strong winds will combine to create our first batch of wind slabs for this storm cycle. Precipitation and wind speeds will only increase as the day progresses, so look for these slabs to grow in size and sensitivity as the day matures. New snow will fall on WSW winds, so look for these slabs to form predominantly on the east side of the compass (NE-E-SE aspects). You'll undoubtedly find the largest and most dangerous slabs of the leeward side of ridges and canyons above 6000 ft. While less likely, in heavily drifted alpine terrain, some slabs could break wider and deeper than you may expect if they fail on weak snow 2-3 ft below the surface. 

    Old firm slabs and newly forming shallow slabs will make for a dangerous afternoon. You'll want to use visual clues such as blowing snow, sharp cornices, and wind-textured surfaces to help you identify and avoid these pockets. 

    (1/22/2024)

    Avoid slopes like this if you notice heavy drifting and sharp cornices along ridglines. 

    Photo: Joe Dellaporta

Avalanche Discussion

Sunday will mark the first day of a stormy period. It should take some time for precipitation to initially reach Hood, but once it does, we expect precipitation rates to intensify and wind to increase into the extreme range. This setup will make for a heads-up afternoon to travel in wind-exposed avalanche terrain.

Before this storm, observers and avalanche professionals have been finding a widespread melt-freeze crust below 5000 ft due to recent warming. Middle elevations have the most variability, with dry snow lingering on shady slopes and thin crusts existing on slopes that receive significant sun. Upper elevations are a patchwork of old stubborn wind slabs, scoured surfaces, and fresher shallow drifts from the upper elevation loading event on Saturday.

Deeper layers of concern, such as the Early February crust, continue to produce inconsistent snowpack test results across the zone. We generally find this layer rounding and gaining strength in the places we've traveled. However, we're discovering it's also very spatially variable. In some areas, such as the northern aspects above 6000 ft, we continue to see weak snow producing propagation and untable test results. The big question now is how this potential weak layer will react to several feet of snow? We're unsure, but that's more reason to increase your margins as you travel in the coming days. 

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