Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Here we go! Welcome to the 2024-25 NWAC Avalanche Forecasting Season. 

The West South zone picked up a lot of snow over the weekend. Any lingering avalanche concerns will likely be limited to pockets of wind-drifted snow along ridges and exposed slopes. Be leery of firmer, pillow-like areas, especially above higher consequence terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    You may see evidence of wind transported snow in lots of locations. The trick will be determining which of these slopes is actually a potential wind slab. Look for areas of deeper and firmer snow to anticipate which aspects and features could hold one of these slabs. You’re most likely to find them underneath cornices, near the bottoms of cliffs, or along exposed ridgelines. Since these wind slabs are a few days old, they could be hard to trigger. Your chance of causing an avalanche will be highest on very steep, convex, or unsupported slopes. Since we’re dealing with a problem that may or may not fail, give extra attention to the consequences. Slopes that end in cliffs, rocks, or trees would make being wrong about the snow much worse. 

    (11/24/2024) This small skier triggered wind slab occurred in firm pillow-like snow directly below a cornice. Photo: Eddie R

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack in the West South zone is off to a pretty great start for the 2024-25 winter season. An active storm track for much of November resulted in impressive snow totals. The pattern crescendoed this past weekend when a storm brought 1-2 ft of snow to most of our weather stations. Not surprisingly this resulted in several natural and human-triggered avalanches Sunday and Monday in the Cyrstal and Mt Rainier areas. Most of these slides were small, but an avalanche professional in the Crystal backcountry did report one larger (D2) avalanche near Dog Leg Chute (6300ft N). 

At this point in the season, we’re working with very limited data and it’s hard to say much about the snowpack across the zone. The most notable and consistent theme is the increase in snow as you gain elevation. The snowpack is significantly deeper at mid and upper elevations. 

Fluctuating freezing levels during the November storms likely left a series of crusts within the snowpack. The few snow profiles we’ve gathered have confirmed this. Could avalanches occur on some of these older layers? Sure…maybe… but we haven’t seen any yet. Ultimately, it’s still early season. There are a lot of unknowns.

While there may be a lot of snow out there for late November, it’s still early. Numerous open creeks, trees, rocks, and bushes make travel challenging. These same obstacles could make even a tiny avalanche much worse. Give yourself extra time to navigate these early-season conditions. 

Uphill travel at a closed ski resort: 1. Follow the ski area’s uphill travel policy. 2. Avalanche mitigation may not have occurred. You should approach the terrain as if it were any other backcountry slope. 3. Numerous other hazards may exist, including electrical lines, snowmaking, heavy machinery, and other motorized traffic. 4. Ski patrol and other ski area staff are not there to respond to emergencies. Travelers should be self-sufficient.

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