Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We will start this holiday week with significant snow, strong winds, warming temperatures, and dangerous avalanche conditions at mid and upper elevations. Slick crusts may make avalanches easy to trigger, and where the wind drifts snow deeper, they might be large enough to bury you. Make conservative decisions and choose sheltered, low-angle slopes for recreation. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Fresh snow, warming temperatures, and slick crusts are a recipe for avalanches. Most avalanches in wind-sheltered terrain will likely be small but could be reactive and slide easily on the Solstice Crust. Where the wind drifts snow deeper, these avalanches may be large enough to bury you. Consequently, the highest hazard will be at upper elevations near ridgelines, steep gullies, and confined alpine features. Precipitation and winds begin to taper in the morning hours, so we expect heightened avalanche activity during the first part of the day. Avoid slopes over 35°, particularly along ridgelines with deep drifts. 

    Monday will be great for enjoying the new snow on low-angle terrain sheltered from wind. Watch for red flag signs of instability, such as recent avalanches, cracking in the new snow, and small test slopes that produce small slabs. This is the first of a series of storms impacting our mountains this week, so settle in for stormy conditions and elevated avalanche hazard. It won't be a particularly cold storm, so lower elevations could see less snow accumulation and drifting than middle and upper elevations. 

    (3/22/2021)

    An example of a small storm slab from a previous season. 

    Photo: Irene Henninger

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Rollerballs and wet, heavy snow that you're sinking into are signs that wet avalanches are possible, and you should consider low-angle routes. While wet loose avalanches tend to be more predictable than slab avalanches, they could slide easily and run farther than you anticipate on the Solstice Crust. Stay vigilant about managing your terrain and where you stop, start, and travel in relation to your backcountry partners. 

    Additional rain at elevations below 4500ft likely won't be the driver for these wet avalanches. Instead, it will be wet, heavy snow falling on slick crusts between 4500-5500ft, where you could easily trigger these avalanches. Throw some sunshine into the mix on Monday morning, and slides could become quite reactive. Small, steep test slopes are a great way to observe how the snow reacts and determine if you're dealing with wet or dry snow avalanche problems. 

    (2/12/2024)

    An example of Wet-loose avalanches that ran far on slick crusts. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

While it is not the cold smoke powder we requested for Christmas, we are going into a stormy pattern with fluctuating freezing levels. It likely won't do much to improve conditions at lower elevations, but it will start stacking up above 4500-5000ft. Sunday night is the first in this series of storms and will be a good test for how reactive avalanches will be on the Solstice Crust. The warmer overall temperatures could help form a favorable bond with this crust, or the few inches of snow that fell on Sunday could have weakened with cold overnight temperatures, but it's too soon to say. This is especially uncertain at the higher elevations where we have limited information, temperatures have been colder, and more precipitation has fallen as snow over the past week. I traveled in the Lichtenberg area just east of Stevens Pass on Saturday. I found variable types of travel, including a mixed bag of punchy crusts and frozen chunder in the forested lower elevations. However, once I entered into more open terrain with fewer trees and vegetation, the crust became much more supportable and smooth. The surface was moist and edgable, but the ski crampons were an extremely useful tool. I found adequate coverage, but creeks had blown out from the rain in a few places. The snowpack at 5000ft was strong and 3-4 feet deep. Some light snow during the day made for shockingly pleasant skiing on the crust in these open areas. 

If you're in the mountains, let us know what you see by submitting an observation.

Regions covered