Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Winds should begin to taper off on Sunday, but you could still trigger avalanches where the wind drifted snow into stiff slabs. Higher elevation slopes beneath ridgelines will be the most suspect. Avalanches large enough to bury you might be isolated, but they are possible. Consider sheltered terrain or steer around steep slopes with deep snow drifts. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Washington Pass recorded just 4 inches of snow on Saturday, but winds in the mid-teens likely transported this fresh snow into deeper wind slabs on lee aspects. The winds were mostly southeasterly, so you could find wind slabs in atypical locations. These slabs also formed over weak surfaces and slick crusts, potentially making them easier to trigger. 

    Visual clues, such as fresh cornice formations, textured surfaces, and drifts around rocks and trees, can help you identify wind-loaded slopes. Small inconsequential test slopes are a great way to check how wind-drifted snow reacts to a load. If you see shooting cracks or trigger a tiny slab, avalanches are more likely, and you should avoid stepping out onto larger steep slopes. We expect these avalanches to be small but could have high consequences depending on the terrain and the number of exposed obstacles beneath you. Steep exposed ridgelines with confined rocky features could also result in some isolated large and more dangerous avalanches, particularly above 6500ft. Steer around steep slopes where you identify wind-drifted snow or consider choosing wind-sheltered terrain for recreation. 

    (11/26/2024)

    Shooting cracks like in this photo are a bullseye sign of unstable snow. Notice the textured surface, indicating wind-affected snow. 

    Photo: Will Govus

Avalanche Discussion

Precipitation and winds fell close to the forecasted values on Saturday, with just over a quarter inch of snow water equivalent (SWE) and four inches of snow. Winds were fairly steady in the transport range out of the south for most of the day. You can expect a couple more inches of snow through Sunday morning before this storm tapers off. 

We'll get a short break between storms, likely bringing clearing skies. While the sun isn't very strong this close to the winter solstice, you could still begin to see rollerballs, pinwheels, or small, wet loose avalanches. These are more likely where rocks and cliffs are warming up in the sun and shedding snow onto the slopes below. We don't expect this to be a significant hazard, but it is something to pay attention to as you travel. If you begin to sink into heavy, wet snow or cliffs are shedding frequently, move to shady slopes and out from under overhead hazards. 

On Saturday, an NWAC forecaster was out near Loup Loup and found 6 inches of new snow over various old melt-freeze crusts. Snow depths in this eastern portion of the zone were around 2ft, with a thin freezing fog crust on the snow surface. He noted fresh drifts that produced isolated cracks on low-angle slopes. The lower snowpack consists of strong melt-freeze layers, but the upper pack has well-developed, weak, faceted grains just below the recent snow. While there isn't enough new snow for this persistent weak layer to be problematic at this time, it is something to keep track of moving forward. 

Take care as you travel - many early-season obstacles, such as trees, rocks, logs, and creeks, are exposed or sometimes barely hidden in areas and elevations with low snow.

You can contribute to the avalanche forecast. Please let us know what you see in the mountains by submitting an observation. 

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