Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

 Warm temperatures keep the threat of wet avalanches alive.  You can trigger a loose avalanche on many aspects where you encounter very wet surface snow and a mushy snowpack.  Meltwater draining into the snowpack or cornice fall could produce a surprise slab avalanche on northerly-facing slopes and alpine east terrain; this type would probably be large.  Avoid steep terrain where you encounter a wet, mushy snowpack to reduce your risk, and use caution if you travel on northerly aspects as a dangerous slab avalanche could release without warning. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Three consecutive nights with little to no freeze coupled with the warmest temperatures of the season escalate loose avalanche problems.  Many loose avalanches remain small, but the very warm weather may allow a few avalanches to gouge deeply into the wet snowpack.  Long, steep terrain could grow larger.  Rollerballs, pinwheels, and ankle-deep wet snow indicate decreasing stability.  Move to less consequential terrain as the problem develops.  Loose avalanche activity has been more active on northerly-facing slopes over the past two days but remains possible on sunny slopes, too.  You can avoid loose avalanches by traveling very early while snow surfaces are frozen and keeping slope angles around 35 degrees or less.

    Yesterday, a skier triggered a loose avalanche on an east-northeast slope on Snodgrass Mountain. The avalanche gouged to the ground and grew large enough to bury or injure a person.

    (4/12/2025) Photo: Eric Murrow

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Multiple days of warm weather and several poor-to-nonexistent overnight refreezes will allow meltwater to drain into the snowpack.  Meltwater can flood buried weak layers/interfaces and destabilize the snowpack.  The most probable place for a wet slab is on the northerly aspects, where winter-like weak layers have yet to transition to a more springlike structure.  Avalanches could fail on the April Fool's crust a foot or two deep or on basal weak layers from early in the season.  Wet Slabs are notoriously hard to predict and pose a deadly threat.  Avoiding steep, northerly-facing terrain this weekend is a simple way to manage an unpredictable problem.  Wet Slab concerns will decrease once cooler weather arrives.

    A Wet Slab avalanche from previous warm weather in late March.  Rocky areas like this often produce more meltwater and increase the chances of a Wet Slab avalanche.

Avalanche Discussion

Wet avalanche issues persist on Sunday despite the slightly cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover.  High temperatures drop by a few degrees but likely exceed the freezing mark on most terrain.  Overnight low temperatures remained above freezing at many locations for the third night, indicating meltwater is draining deeply into the snowpack.

As of this morning, there has not been a confirmed Wet Slab in the CBAC forecast boundaries, but on Thursday, a large avalanche failed on an east-facing slope of Mount Owen.  This slide was likely the result of a cornice fall, but meltwater could have been a contributing factor by destabilizing weak layers deep in the snowpack.  A forecaster observation from Snodgrass Mountain documented meltwater draining into basal weak layers on north-facing terrain and easy-to-trigger loose avalanches on shady slopes.  This data and the third consecutive night with a poor refreeze reinforce the potential for dangerous Wet Slab avalanches.  Southerly-facing terrain has experienced multiple warm periods this winter, and meltwater has commonly drained through the entire snowpack, which reduces the concern for a Wet Slab on sunnier aspects.  You can dig into the snowpack in the area you plan to travel and try to identify if meltwater is pooling along an interface or draining into the basal depth hoar to gain more information. Still, the simplest and most effective strategy is to wait for cooler weather to end meltwater production.  Lower-angled terrain is another easy management strategy.

Cooler temperatures on Monday may help reduce the threat of wet avalanche activity, but cloud cover this evening may maintain the warmth overnight.  If you plan to ride in steep terrain, start early tomorrow.

 

Regions covered