Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

New snow and wind will build stiff slabs of snow in exposed terrain.  It will be likely to trigger an avalanche underneath corniced ridgelines and in exposed cross-loaded terrain features. Shooting cracks around your equipment, collapsing of the snowpack, and recent avalanches are all clues that the snowpack is unstable.  Enjoyable riding conditions and less risk will exist on wind-sheltered and lower angled slopes.  

This forecast is sponsored by Eagle Cap Mountain Guides

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow accompanied by wind will continue to drift into stiff slabs that will be sensitive in exposed terrain.  The most likely places to find these wind slabs will be on W-N-E aspects at mid and upper elevations.  Localized wind loading patterns could load additional aspects and mid-slope features.   It will be wise to evaluate any exposed terrain for fresh wind slabs.  Look for clues such as actively blowing snow, a rippled or pillow-like look to the snow surface, cracking around your equipment, and corniced ridgelines.   Avoid areas that harbor fresh wind slabs. Utilize small test slopes that lack consequence to test the reactivity of wind slabs.  

    In wind-sheltered areas that receive 6" or more snow today,  be aware that sensitive storm slabs could exist in terrain steeper than 30 degrees.   The likelihood of this will be greater if the next system arrives ahead of schedule.  

    (12/26/2024) An example of a wind-loaded slope.  Notice the stiff and rippled look of the snow surface with a shooting crack.  

Avalanche Discussion

A Fresh coat of paint in the hills. 

Starting on Wednesday morning, the mountains received a much-needed coat of paint.   Crusts, crusts, and more crusts were the common theme across many aspects and elevations before the new snow arrived.  Solar aspects held thick and supportive melt-freeze crusts, while exposed shadier alpine terrain hosted more of a wind crust.  Only the most wind-sheltered terrain on true north aspects held soft settled snow.    Freezing levels on Wednesday hovered around 6,000' but dropped by Thursday morning to around 3000'.  The Northern Wallowas received 10-12" of new snow at Wing Ridge with wind-drifted snow depths up to 16-20" deep.  Field reports from Anthony Lakes included an average settled storm total of 8-12" with less in wind-scoured locations.   In the Norway Basin area, reports are that there was no new snow accumulation below 6800', but 6-12" of settled storm snow from 7300' and higher.   Check out an observation from Thursday at Wing Ridge here.  

We forgot to prep the surface. 

Have you ever skipped a step in the painting process?  Maybe you didn't scrape the old peeling paint off the board, didn't sand the surface, or didn't apply primer?  I know I've been there...  The new paint doesn't stick so well.   As the new snow falls and is blown onto old crusts, it is going to take additional time to bond.  Snow that has been blown into 1-2' thick slabs of snow will run fast and far on these slick crusts.   In the Northern Wallowas on Thursday, snowpack tests indicated easy propagation of a layer of weaker snow near a melt-freeze crust.  In the Southern Wallowas, on windward aspects, observers found better bonding to the old melt-freeze crusts with plenty of graupel in the new snow.   

Looking forward and stepping back.

There were no reported avalanches in observations from yesterday,  but with significant additional snow and wind forecasted today through Sunday night, expect an increase in avalanche danger moving into tomorrow.  It will be wise to cultivate a mindset where you are stepping back in your terrain selection.   If you decide to head into the mountains today and tomorrow, it will be paramount to be on your best behavior:  Expose only one person at a time, keep eyes on your partners, and regroup well clear of avalanche path runouts.   Keep clear lines of communication open with your partners, respect the veto power of someone who wants to dial it back, and be clear with your intentions.  

Engage with your backcountry community and forecasters.   Submit an observation here and help us reduce uncertainty.  It can be simple, short, and even anonymous.  Thank you! 

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