Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  Human triggered avalanches are possible up to one foot in depth involving the most recent storm snow.  Wet loose avalanche activity will become possible at low elevations if the sun comes out or rain is occurring.

Avalanche Forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8am

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The most recent snowfall from 2/27-28 has been found to be 6-10 inches in depth and overlies old wind slabs in some locations and older storm snow in more protected locations.  Good bonding was observed at the interface of the new snow and the wind slabs underneath the new snow have been showing signs of being unreactive.  Another night of settlement, calm -light winds and light-no snowfall will allow stability to continue to increase.

    Human triggered avalanches are possible up to 1 foot in depth in steep rocky terrain, steep convex features and areas where wind has stiffened the snow surface.  An inch or two of new snow is expected today, but is not expected to be enough to increase the avalanche hazard.

    Hand shear pits and small incosequential test slopes are great tools with the current conditions to quickly gather information about the snowpack in the area you choose to travel.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    There are currently 2 persistent weak layers on our radar, both only exist at low elevation.There is a layer of buried surface hoar from Valentine's Day as well as weak snow below a decomposing rain crust from late January.

     Below 1500 feet a rain crust is buried 12-16 inches, and has shown reactivity in recent observations. Collapsing and propagation in ECTS from multiple locations have been taking place on this layer within the last few days. Currently, we have not seen any avalanche activity on this layer, but that is becoming increasingly possible with continuing snow/rain loads as well as further weakening of the old rain crust. 

    Buried surface hoar from 2/14 exists in wind protected areas from 1500 -2500 feet.  Burial depth in the maritime zone is around 2 feet and a bit shallower moving inland. This layer showed reactivity in pit tests earlier this week with clean shears in ECT tests. So far we are not seeing propagation or avalanche activity on this layer but that may change with continued stress.  

    To limit exposure to both of these layers avoid terrain traps and  consider using conservative terrain while moving through low elevations..  There is uncertainty on the current and future reactivity of these two layers. We are keeping these on our list, as current weather conditions will continue to stress these layers. 

     

    (2/28/2025)

    Buried surface hoar on a shear planar surface in pits tests. No propagation on ECT

    Photo: Joshua McDonald

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Above freezing temperatures at low elevation coincided with direct sun yesterday.  This combination created a moderate amount of wet loose activity with low volume.  A crust will now exist on south aspects at low and possibly mid elevations that will limit wet loose activity until it is broken down by above freezing temps, rain , or direct sun.  Rain or direct sun will have the greatest effect on the crust and potential for wet loose activity, and the presence or absence of either of these will determine the amount of wet loose activity that occurs today.  Pay attention to the weather, and how frozen the surface snow is at low elevations.  Wet loose activity will begin near rocks first as these heat up quicker than the snow surface and transfer that heat energy into the nearby snow.

    When assessing wet loose hazards, it is essential to take the hazard in relation to the terrain you are exposing yourself to.  Are there terrain traps? Are there consequences if I were to be swept off my feet by even a small avalanche? 

    The size and shape of the terrain above you along with the amount of loose snow available to slide, directly correlates to the size of the wet loose activity that can occur. Terrain traps and exposure below you compound consequences.

     

    (3/1/2025)

    Wet loose activity originating from rocks on steep south facing terrain.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

  Small to moderate wet loose activity in steep low elevation terrain.

D2 heli skier triggered avalanche at the New/old interface in the Maritime zone.

Forecast Discussion:

Consistent rounds of incremental snowfall have been gradually building the amount of loose snow above a layer of hard wind affected snow above 3000' that formed in early February. This interface is on average 20 inches below the surface. Good bonding has been continuously observed at this interface at multiple locations, elevations, and aspects.  This gradual building of storm slab depth was disrupted on the 26th as a brief North wind event redistributed new snow at upper elevations and locations close to Thompson Pass.  These wind slabs are now 4 days old and have been observed to be unreactive.  The most recent snowfall is 6-10 inches in depth on average and showing signs of good bonding with little to no wind effect.

Persistent weak layers have shown signs of instability in specific low-mid elevation terrain. These layers have not yet produced avalanches but the likelihood of doing so is increasing. This is not a widespread problem but could take a traveler by surprise in isolated steep, low-elevation terrain. Use caution when traveling up or down through areas that may have persistent weak layers. Uncertainty exists on the current and future reactivity of these layers so we will be keeping a close watch and posting updates when we get more information. 

 

 

Additional Information:

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 3/2 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow March Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    0    44     0 N/O     Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O    0    ~500 Nicks    0    0    138    0 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   22    0 N/O

Regions covered