Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snow surface should freeze Friday night and limit the avalanche danger at middle and lower elevations. However, if you head up high, there’s been much more recent snow and stronger winds. Be leery of firm pillow-like drifts along exposed ridges and rocky slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The few inches of new snow Saturday night might drift into a few very shallow fresh wind skins, but that’s not the main issue we’re talking about. Even though not much snow accumulated at weather stations in the zone, an inch or more of precipitation fell Thursday night along with stronger winds. Up high, that could be quite a bit of snow to blow around. 

    It’s hard to say how widespread and active this problem will be. Look for clues like scoured slopes, sharp wind lips, and firm slabs of snow. While small slopes can help you see how these potential avalanches will respond to your weight, it can still be hard to full assess if the snow will fail. Give high consequence wind loaded slopes a wide berth.

    (12/12/2024)

    Example: Wind scoured and loaded features on an exposed ridge at upper elevations.  You can stomp on the wind lips to see if you find small slabs.

Avalanche Discussion

Spring is a very dynamic time in regard to avalanche forecasting. There are always plenty of “if-then” statements. A few key items should impact the accuracy and nuance of Saturday’s forecast. First and foremost is the overnight freeze. Cold temperatures and mostly clear skies should allow the wet snow from Friday to freeze solid. This would put most of the recent wet loose avalanche concerns to bed. However, if the freeze doesn’t form or breaks down during the day, then you may trigger or see natural wet loose avalanches. Several such natural slides were observed on Friday. 

Even with a surface freeze, all the water running through the snowpack won’t stop on a dime. Shed-style avalanches like glides, wet slabs, and cornice collapses can still release. These avalanches are impossible to assess, but may be most common on very steep and rocky slopes where the snowpack is thinner. Pay attention to the overhead hazards and don’t linger underneath. Overall, the snowpack at middle and upper elevations is still working its way through the messy transition from winter to spring. Some slopes are further along than others. These unlikely but potentially large avalanches will probably be with us for a while longer. 

We’re only expecting a few inches of new snow in this storm. That shouldn’t pose much of a hazard on its own. If the sun comes out in the afternoon, expect this new snow to slide easily over the underlying crust. This could take the shape of a barrage of rollerballs or even small natural wet loose slides. The more new snow, the bigger these slides may become. 

The number of travel hazards continue to increase. Open creeks, holes near rocks, patches of bare ground, and plenty of debris make travel more challenging than normal. This is doubly true at lower elevations where a thin snowpack is quickly disappearing.

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