Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Day 4 of warm temperatures with two consecutive nights without a solid refreeze will raise the avalanche danger to considerable for wet snow avalanche concerns. Water has been percolating deeper down in the snowpack to where we may see natural wet slab avalanches.  Smaller loose wet snow avalanches in the top foot of the snowpack can still entrain more snow as it fans out across the slope and may be difficult to escape.  Pay attention to smaller loose wet snow avalanches or rollerballs and pinwheels and where you start to punch in past your boot tops in wet manky snow.  These are indications of wet snow avalanche concerns and it's most likely time to call it a day. 

Deeper down in the snowpack, faceted weak layers continue to linger on northerly and east aspect with stubborn slabs above.  Warning signs like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks most likely will not be present, but these types of persistent slab avalanches can break widely across terrain features.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops as these are places you are more likely to impact deeper weak layers.  It may not be the first or second person on the slope to trigger an avalanche but just finding that right "sweet spot" of slab/weak layer combination. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With two nights without a solid refreeze and warm temperatures during the day the threat of larger wet slab avalanches increases as free water continues to drive deeper in the snowpack. As water percolates deeper down into the snowpack it can pool and lubricate on buried faceted crusts or create wet collapsible weak layers.  Natural wet slab avalanches are possible today.  Avoid steep slopes where you are punching in past your boot tops in wet gloppy snow.  These types of avalanches can be difficult to predict and oftentimes are very destructive.

    An example of a wet slab avalanche from last year's spring warm up.   

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    It won't take long for the snow surface to warm up and become wet and manky in the top 12" as overnight temperatures didn't get below freezing. Watch out for rollerballs and pinwheels and wet snow where you punch in above your boot-tops. Loose wet snow avalanches typically start a small point release in steeper terrain underneath rocks that can quickly fan out entraining more snow and may break down into deeper layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  If you notice the snow getting wet, either head to a shadier aspect or it may be time to call it a day. This type of avalanche may happen naturally or be human-triggered today.

    Loose wet snow avalanches like these typically start as small point releases near rock bands and fan out as they travel down the slope.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Faceted weak layers from the January/February dry periods are buried beneath 2 to 4-foot slabs from snow we received at the end of Feb/early March. These weak layers are showing signs of healing and strengthening and becoming more stubborn to being triggered. Recent stability tests are producing hard force or not failing at all on 4F hard rounding facets. These types of conditions can be tricky as obvious signs of instability most likely will not be present and it could be the third or fourth person on the slope to find that "sweet spot" to release an avalanche.  However, if you do trigger a persistent slab avalanche there is potential that it could be large and destructive.  Warm temperatures also do weird things to the snowpack and make triggering an avalanche on these deeper layers more likely. Steep northerly and east aspects continue to remain the bulls-eye for lingering persistent slab concerns. Avoid areas on the margins of the slab and near rock outcroppings, as these are likely trigger points where you're able to impact these weak layers  

Avalanche Discussion

Overnight temperatures hovered around freezing as we've now had two consecutive nights without a solid refreeze and very warm daytime temperatures that approached 60 degrees.  Today will bring partly cloudy skies, but temperatures again will climb into the 40s and 50s.  It won't take long for the snow surface to become wet and gloppy, as many snow surfaces will only have a superficial refreeze on the surface.    Be aware of overhanging cornices that are warming up and softening with this warm weather.  Cornices may break back further than expected on ridgelines or may release naturally which can act as a big trigger on the slopes below.  Avoid traveling on steep slopes directly below cornices this weekend.  

If you're heading to higher elevation north-facing slopes to avoid the wet snow concerns, continue to be aware of facets deeper down in the snowpack that formed during the January/February dry period and have 2 to 4 foot dense slabs on top.   There is still a chance that you could find the right slab/weak layer combination to produce a large persistent slab avalanche in this terrain.    

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