Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The risk for natural or human-triggered shallow wet avalanches remains in isolated areas. Saturated or unsupportable snow surfaces confirm the problem. Poor overnight refreezes add uncertainty to the forecast, so if you see signs of avalanches large enough to harm you, reduce your exposure to steep terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    We expect that multiple days of freeze-thaw cycles have set up the snowpack to handle gradual continued warming as indicated by decreasing wet loose activity. If we're correct, expect small wet avalanches to continue in steep, rocky terrain features. You should still look for signs of wet loose avalanches such as rollerballs and fresh fan-shaped avalanches, and if you begin to sink deeply into wet, heavy snow as the day warms up. Even though the expected size is relatively small, keep in mind that even small avalanches can have high consequences in extreme terrain and you can reduce your slope angle and exposure to decrease your risk.

    As freezing levels rise to 9000 ft on Sunday, be alert for any signs of increasing instability and any signs that the avalanche forecast may be too low: A poor overnight refreeze, snow that you sink into deeply, areas where more snow exists above the early March crust, and most importantly avalanches large enough to harm you. Conditions can change rapidly during the springtime, so dial back your terrain selection quickly if you find the evidence to do so.

     

    (3/25/2022) Wet loose avalanches off steep rocky terrain. The larger avalanches are likely from earlier in the week. Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

Any large cornice falls will be weak and prone to fail; they could be dangerous in their own right or trigger larger wet loose avalanches. Attempt to minimize your time lingering underneath overhung cornices, and don't be afraid to steer widely around potential runout zones. Some shaded, northerly aspects above treeline may still harbor more deeply buried faceted layers. Large triggers, such as cornices, could initiate deeper slab avalanches on these layers.

Observers have been documenting weaker, faceted grains or surface hoar overlying a crust from early March on W-N-E aspects from Stemilt Basin to Icicle Creek and other areas to the north and south. This week's warm temperatures have likely created surface crusts at most elevations and aspects. While these crusts and icy surfaces have helped reduce the possibility of triggering a persistent slab, there is some uncertainty about elevations above 6500ft. You could find dry snow on northerly terrain at the highest elevations. If you are traveling through cold, dry snow, it will be worth digging down to identify any weak layers over the early march crust before committing to steep or consequential terrain. If you adventure up into the high alpine terrain of the East Central Zone, let us know what you find by submitting an observation. 

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