Avalanche forecast

Skyline

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Highlights

ANTICIPATE INCREASING AVALANCHE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEK.

The avalanche danger is rated at MODERATE today.

Human triggered avalanches are possible but not likely.

Upper elevation steep slopes that face north through southeast which have a recent deposit of wind drifted snow are the most likely place to trigger an avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    A Persistent Weak Layer of sugary faceted snow that formed in mid November remains my biggest concern. For today, chances for triggering an avalanche that breaks into this layer are fairly unlikely. Even though triggering a slide is unlikely, I personally just avoid slopes steeper than 30˚ when there is a buried layer of loose sugar. You cannot trust your life with this stuff. This layer will eventually stabilize but I don't think we're there just yet.

    My big question is how the buried weak layer will behave as we add more snow on top of it, perhaps a lot of snow! I really don't know quite what to expect. It's possible that it doesn't get overloaded and become reactive. However, it's also very possible that the place comes unglued and we see large avalanches. Uncertainty is a clue and whenever there is uncertainty, you must go the conservative route. If I don't see any natural avalanches during the upcoming storms, I'll be satisfied that the weak layer has stabilized. Keep in mind though, you must treat it as guilty until proven innocent.

    For some insight on a Moderate avalanche danger rating with a Persistent Weak Layer, read THIS BLOG POST BY FORECASTER ERIC TRENBEATH.

Snow and Weather

Current Conditions: It is unseasonably warm in the mountains with overnight temperatures in the mid 30s. Some stations are pushing 40˚F. Southwest wind is starting to pick up along the higher ridges.

Mountain Weather: A pretty good looking storm will move in later today and should produce about a foot of snow or better by late Wednesday. Southwest wind will be fairly strong to start. Temperatures stay quite mild today then start to cool down tonight. We'll see a few lingering periods of snow Thursday and Friday then another good looking storm moves in for the weekend through Monday that could bring another foot of snow or more.

Additional Info

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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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