Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human-triggered avalanches on lingering buried weak layers 1 to 3' deep above 2500' are the main concern today. In addition, wind transported snow along exposed ridgetops and areas experiencing outflow winds could cause natural or human-triggered avalanches up to 1' deep. Finally, large glide avalanches have been releasing throughout the region and continue to be a concerning hazard that is best to avoid. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Recent Avalanches: The last significant avalanche cycle was during the Thanksgiving storm,  about 10 days ago. Since then, we have seen continued glide avalanche activity throughout the area.

    The warm and wet weather last week didn't do any favors for the skiing and riding conditions, creating an icy crust up to about 2600'. However, now that the snowpack has refrozen, the silver lining is that the wet weather added a lot of strength to the snowpack. So we an not as concerned about buried weak layers at treeline elevations and below.

    Above 2500', we are still concerned about several weak layers of buried surface hoar that range from 1 to 3' deep in the snowpack and have the potential to cause large human-triggered avalanches. Buried surface hoar is notorious for giving no signs of instability (no red flags) and remaining dangerous for a long time, which makes it very difficult to assess and manage. To avoid the potential for being involved with one of these avalanches, you can always stick to simple, low angle terrain and avoid travelling above terrain traps like gullies, trees, or cliffs. 

    Wind Slabs: Elevated winds averaging 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph from the North or Northeast in some portions of the forecast area could build wind slabs up to 1' deep. These typically form along ridgelines and convex rolls where wind transported snow accumulates. To identify areas harboring wind slabs, you can look for active wind loading, shooting cracks, and hollow sounding pillows of new snow. Triggering a smaller wind slab could cause a larger avalanche on a buried weak layer.

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Glide avalanches continue to release across the forecast area on a wide variety of aspects and elevations. These large and destructive avalanches are very unpredictable, and the best practice is to avoid them as much as possible. A glide crack can form and cause an avalanche within minutes to hours, so it is important to be aware of the slopes above you and look for recently formed glide cracks. Several large glide avalanches have released in the past week that did not have an obvious crack on the surface the prior day. 

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