Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heightened avalanche conditions exist and the danger is MODERATE on steep, wind drifted slopes near and above treeline that face W-N-NE-E. Human triggered avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow are possible. Triggered wind slabs may run farther than you expect on slick, hard surfaces underneath.

Becoming more the exception than the rule, it may still be possible to trigger a deep hard slab avalanche failing on buried persistent weak layers. This problem exists near treeline and above on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E and the danger remains MODERATE. Very steep slopes with a shallow snowpack are the most suspect areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Fresh deposits of wind drifted snow are your primary concern today on steep slopes facing W-NW-N-NE-E. Look for them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features including sub-ridges, gully walls, and depressions that capture wind blown snow. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, round, or rippled appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Due to the hard, slick surfaces underneath, triggered wind slabs may entrain loose snow below and run farther than think. One thing to keep in mind is that the more consequential the terrain, the more consequential the problem. Be aware of what's below you and where you would end up.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3

    Warm temperatures last week, percolating meltwater in the snowpack, and several nights with a solid refreeze have significantly decreased the likelihood for triggering an avalanche on a persistent weak layer. However, layers of cold, dry faceted snow still remain on steep, northerly aspects near treeline, and in some areas above. Shallower snowpack areas are where you are most likely to find trouble and any avalanche triggered would be deep and dangerous. You can pull out your probe to determine snowpack depth. If you are finding depths of a 180 cms or more, you are probably okay but remember that shallow trigger points exist.

Additional Info

Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Special Announcement

The word is that there will be no construction today and the road will be open.

Geyser Pass Road: Expect to find a few inches of fresh snow on Geyser Pass road. 4x4 recommended.

Grooming Conditions: Trails are covered in fresh snow.

Motorized Users—Please consider taking this 5-minute survey to help researchers better understand avalanche education participation and safety preparedness. Responses are anonymous and confidential. Thank you!

Recent Activity

Mark White observed these natural wind slab avalanches on Wednesday. This is your primary concern today. Once triggered they may gather loose snow and run farther than you expect.

A snowboarder triggered a large and dangerous avalanche on Horse Head Bowl in the Abajo mountains last Saturday. We are extremely grateful for a positive outcome and his thorough and thoughtful report.

See the complete avalanche database here.

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 6" 72 Hour Snow: 16" Season Total Snow: 138" Depth at Gold Basin: 56"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 7° F

Weather

Skies are partly cloudy this morning and overnight southerly winds have been relatively light. The broad, upper level trough that has been parked over the region begins to move east today, but low level circulation will continue to stream in moisture on an easterly flow. Look for increasing clouds and a developing chance for a few more inches of snow today. Winds will be on the increase shifting to the east and then northeast with gusts along ridge tops reaching 25 mph. Skies begin to clear tonight and Saturday looks mostly clear and breezy. By Sunday, a ridge builds over the region and a gradual warming trend begins.

General Conditions

Yesterday's storm overproduced at 11 inches bringing totals for the week up to 18 inches. Not bad for the first week of April considering how the rest of the season has been. Conditions are good but you can still feel last week's hard surface underneath, especially on southerly aspects and on steeper slopes. Travis Nauman observed "blower" conditions out of the wind zone yesterday with at least a foot of new snow up high. He also noted significant wind transport and a fair bit of isolated wind slab development. Also of note, south facing slopes are deceptively covered by the new snow as many were bare, or very thin prior to the recent snow.

Last week's heat wave and subsequent cold snap has really locked up the snowpack, and beneath this week's fresh snowfall the surface is firm and solid. This has greatly diminished the likelihood for triggering a deep hard slab avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer but it's still not beyond the realm of possibility. A skier over in the San Juans yesterday triggered a wind slab avalanche that stepped down into a buried persistent weak layer. Likely trigger points include steep convexities, thin slab margins, and shallow rocky areas. Sticking to broad, planar slopes will help minimize your risk.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Regions covered