Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Regions
Vancouver Island.
Main concerns: Storm Slab, Persistent Slab, Loose Wet.
Travel & Terrain Advice
Take note of changing conditions as you move through elevation bands. Avoid overhead hazards and be aware of paths that may originate from higher terrain. Pay close attention to the presence of shooting cracks and/or whumpfing as you travel. Below treeline, creeks and early season conditions prevail.
Avalanche Summary
Very little alpine observations during our recent storm cycle. No natural activity seen or reported with the exception of several size 1 loose wet avalanches on all aspects below treeline during recent spikes in freezing levels. Shooting cracks and whumpfing have been reported on all aspects at treeline.
Snowpack Summary
Recent moderate to heavy precipitation and strong to extreme southerly winds have deposited up to 2 m of storm snow with variable distribution above 1400 m on top of a melt freeze crust with weak facets below. Lower elevations have seen much of this precipitation as rain. Above 1400 m a poorly bonding density change buried 60-90 cm deep has produced moderate results with a propensity for propagation. Testing on the weak facet/crust layer has also shown sudden planar results which suggest a large load like a cornice failure could have potential to trigger this deep instability. Below 1400 m, surfaces are moist to wet.
Snowpack Details
Surface: Above 1400 m 20-30 cm of dry loose storm snow. Below 1400 m moist to wet. Upper: Above 1400 m 50-60 cm of unconsolidated dry storm snow. Mid: Rounding storm snow with varying densities. Lower: Lower 20-30 cm melt freeze crust/facet combo.
Past Weather
Last week we experienced moderate to heavy precipitation and strong to extreme southerly winds across the forecast region. Freezing levels have been hovering around the 1100-1600 m mark with the snow level between about 900-1400 m.
Weather Forecast
MONDAY - 50 to 80 mm of precipitation with freezing levels around 1200 m and strong SE winds. Freezing levels will spike to 1600-1700 m Monday evening. Expect lower precipitation amounts and freezing levels in the northern regions. TUESDAY - 30 to 50 mm of precipitation with freezing levels around 1100 m and strong to extreme SW winds. WEDNESDAY - 10 to 20 mm of precipitation with freezing levels dropping to 900 m and winds easing to moderate from the south.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.