Snow and wind will continue to build storm slabs at all elevations. Expect these to be touchy in wind loaded areas and where a crust has been buried. Be aware of potential for loose wet slides and cornice failures with sun and warming.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
TONIGHT: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5-15 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate, southwest. Alpine temperature near -7. Freezing level 700 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 2-8 cm. Ridge wind light, southeast. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1700 m.MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, light flurries. Accumulation trace. Ridge wind moderate to strong, southeast. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1900 m.TUESDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 10-20 cm. Ridge wind light, northwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1600 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday there were reports of a skier-triggered wind slab (size 1) on a steep, cross-loaded, southeast-facing slope at 2700 m. As well as a size 1.5, skier-triggered loose, wet release release in moist snow above a crust on a west-facing slope at 2000 m. Also on Friday a large cornice collapsed on a southeast aspect at 2500 m, with several 'bus-sized' blocks observed in the debris.Thursday there were reports from Glacier National Park of a size 4 wind slab that occurred overnight and is thought to have been cornice triggered on a north aspect at 2800 m.Wednesday there was a report of a natural cornice failure that resulted in a size 2.5 wind slab release (50 cm deep and 200 m wide) on a northeast aspect at 2600 m, north of Glacier National Park.And on Tuesday in the neighboring Glacier National Park, natural loose wet avalanches size 2.5 to 3 ran on all aspects between 1950 and 2700 m.
Snowpack Summary
About 15-25 cm of new snow overlies a crust on all aspects to at least 2300 m (and possibly higher on south aspects). While 30-50 cm of storm snow can be found at higher elevations in the alpine. There are now a few different crusts in the upper 50 cm of the snowpack, with only the upper, most-recently buried crust posing a concern with new storm snow at upper elevations.There is some lingering concern around the mid-March Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) in the alpine where it is found 70 to 120 cm below the surface. This buried crust/surface hoar interface was widely reactive but has not produced any avalanche in the past week. It is likely trending towards dormancy, but we need to keep it in the back of our minds as it is capable of producing large avalanches should it be triggered (think step-down from a surface avalanche or a cornice collapse).Deeper persistent weak layers from December and January are generally considered dormant at this time but may be starting to become reactive to large triggers, such as a cornice collapse.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.