Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Synopsis: Saturday is mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries. Temperatures drop significantly as the Arctic ridge pushes west toward the coast. Periods of snow are expected on Sunday as a frontal system clashes with the Arctic front. Currently weather models only suggest around 5-10 cm, but there is potential for much more in some areas. Winds will also increase to strong from the S-SE. Snow tapers off to flurries on Monday and winds ease to light. Check out this Special Weather Statement for the Bulkley Valley and Smithers.   

There was one report of a small size 1 rider-triggered avalanche on Thursday. It involved only the recent storm snow and was triggered on a steep gully wall. On Dec. 29 a rider triggered a size 1.5 avalanche on a north aspect in the alpine at 1700m. The small steep wind loaded slope was triggered when the machine was climbing, the rider reportedly rode out of the avalanche behind the debris. See the Mountain Information Network for a photo and more details.

The freezing level spiked to 2000 m in the southernmost part of the region on New Years Day. At higher elevations and northern sections there was around 5-15 cm of new snow. Ridge top winds were reported to be very strong from the W-NW, likely creating hard and soft wind slabs in exposed lee terrain. In northern sections the new snow now covers a potential weak layer of surface hoar. Down 30-50 cm you may find another surface hoar layer, although it appears to be spotty in distribution. Near the bottom of the snowpack is a crust facet combo that was buried in mid-November. This layer is currently dormant and produces variable results in snowpack tests. I suspect it will remain sensitive to new inputs in the form of new snow and wind for the foreseeable future.