Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 2nd, 2015 7:32AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada Peter, Avalanche Canada

Conditions may vary significantly from South to North. Be sure to supplement this forecast with your own local observations.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: Saturday is mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries. Temperatures drop significantly as the Arctic ridge pushes west toward the coast. Periods of snow are expected on Sunday as a frontal system clashes with the Arctic front. Currently weather models only suggest around 5-10 cm, but there is potential for much more in some areas. Winds will also increase to strong from the S-SE. Snow tapers off to flurries on Monday and winds ease to light. Check out this Special Weather Statement for the Bulkley Valley and Smithers.   

Avalanche Summary

There was one report of a small size 1 rider-triggered avalanche on Thursday. It involved only the recent storm snow and was triggered on a steep gully wall. On Dec. 29 a rider triggered a size 1.5 avalanche on a north aspect in the alpine at 1700m. The small steep wind loaded slope was triggered when the machine was climbing, the rider reportedly rode out of the avalanche behind the debris. See the Mountain Information Network for a photo and more details.

Snowpack Summary

The freezing level spiked to 2000 m in the southernmost part of the region on New Years Day. At higher elevations and northern sections there was around 5-15 cm of new snow. Ridge top winds were reported to be very strong from the W-NW, likely creating hard and soft wind slabs in exposed lee terrain. In northern sections the new snow now covers a potential weak layer of surface hoar. Down 30-50 cm you may find another surface hoar layer, although it appears to be spotty in distribution. Near the bottom of the snowpack is a crust facet combo that was buried in mid-November. This layer is currently dormant and produces variable results in snowpack tests. I suspect it will remain sensitive to new inputs in the form of new snow and wind for the foreseeable future.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Fresh touchy wind slabs could form on open N and E facing slopes. New snow may also hide older hard and stubborn wind slabs from the previous outflow winds - these can be found on S and W facing slopes.
Sheltered slopes at lower elevations might offer the best snow quality.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
A crust buried in mid November remains sensitive to human triggering, especially in thin spots near rock outcroppings. Surface avalanches in motion may step down to this interface.
Caution around convexities, ridge crests, rock outcroppings and anywhere else with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 6

Valid until: Jan 3rd, 2015 2:00PM