Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Synopsis: A low pressure system over northwest BC will track south eastward through BC and into Alberta.Tonight: Cloudy, trace of precipitation, freezing level at valley bottom, winds from the west, light, occasionally moderate.Thursday: Cloudy with sunny periods and flurries, trace to 10 cm of precipitation, freezing level around 700 metres, winds light, from the west.Friday: Cloudy with flurries, trace to 10 cm of precipitation, freezing level at valley bottom, light  to moderate ridge top winds from the south east.Saturday: Cloudy with snow, trace to 10cm of precipitation, freezing level around 600 metres, ridge top winds, light from the south east.

No avalanche reports from Tuesday in the region, however this is most likely as a result of poor visibility and not an indication of avalanche activity. Reports of large natural avalanche cycle during and after Mondays precipitation and wind event indicate that avalanches up to size 3, were running on the early March and Feb.10th persistent weak layers. With continued loading and wind, rider triggering is definitely possible at this time.

10 to 20cm of overnight precipitation in some parts of the forecast region, combined with strong winds continues to build wind slabs in lee terrain and increase the depth of the storm slab that overlies the March persistent weak layer. This persistent weak layer is now buried well over a metre in most parts of the region. The recent storm snow has fallen on a melt freeze and/or rain crusts exist in most parts of the region below 1200 metres. This could become reactive on solar aspects when the sun finally comes out.The March weak layer is a combination of hard wind-scoured slab surfaces in exposed terrain, facets and/or surface hoar in sheltered and north aspects, and sun crust on steep solar aspects and is widespread throughout the forecast region.A late January/early February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is still showing up in snowpack tests with moderate to hard shear tests. This layer will be with us for a long time, and a slide triggered on this layer would be very large and destructive. Recent warming temperatures will be good for bonding on this layer, but a sudden increase in load, or a large rainfall event could "wake up" this layer and result in very large avalanches.