Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 19th, 2020 5:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs.
JSmith,
Avalanche Canada
Intense solar radiation can rapidly change conditions. Avoid slopes that are threatened by large cornices overhead during the heat of the day. Falling cornices may trigger very large avalanches.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -15 C, freezing level below valley bottom.
THURSDAY: Sunny, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1000 m.
FRIDAY: Sunny, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1200 m.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries (0-3 cm), light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1100 m.
Avalanche Summary
A couple naturally triggered size 2 and several skier triggered size 1 wind slabs were reported on easterly aspects at treeline and above on Tuesday.Â
There have also been a few sporadic large avalanches over the past week. Most recently, a large (size 3) deep persistent slab avalanche was remotely triggered on Sunday just outside the forecast region near Mt. Seven. Photos in the Mountain Information Network report show this avalanche was initiated by a skier causing a whumpf on a ridge that released a small wind slab on an east-facing alpine slope which then stepped down to the facets at the bottom of the snowpack. Another size 2.5 deep persistent slab avalanche was observed on a southwest aspect in steep and rocky alpine terrain near Golden on Thursday (see MIN report). Additionally, a large snowmobile triggered avalanche was reported on a convex roll at treeline in Quartz Creek on Wednesday (see MIN report). These isolated, but large avalanches suggest that the Purcells region is currrently in a low probability, high consequence scenario that requires careful snowpack and terrain evaluation.
Snowpack Summary
Sunny weather could weaken cornices and the upper snowpack on steep south-facing slopes. Surface conditions are a mix of low density snow in sheltered terrain, sun crusts on solar aspects, and isolated wind slabs at higher elevations. At lower elevations (below 1600-2000 m) 20-40 cm of snow sits above a hard rain crust. The middle of the snowpack is strong, but the base of the snowpack contains basal facets that have resulted in sporadic, large deep persistent slab avalanches, especially in shallow rocky start zones.Â
Terrain and Travel
- Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack continues to pose a deep persistent slab avalanche problem. The most recent activity has been focused around the Golden area, but steep, rocky, shallow terrain throughout the region should be treated with caution. Avoid big alpine slopes that are threatened by cornices overhead, especially when they are getting hit by the sun.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 20th, 2020 5:00PM
