Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 1st, 2020 2:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Cornices.
cgarritty,
Avalanche Canada
Ease into terrain cautiously on Sunday and be prepared to step back if you encounter signs of instability. Seek sheltered, low density snow and keep clear of overhead hazards - especially if they're in the sun.
Summary
Confidence
Weather Forecast
Saturday night: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. Strong west winds, easing into the morning.
Sunday: Sunny. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -12.
Monday: Becoming cloudy over the day with flurries beginning in the evening. Light variable winds, shifting south in the afternoon and becoming strong overnight. Alpine high temperatures around -11.
Tuesday: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, 10-20 cm with overnight accumulations. Moderate to strong southwest winds easing over the day.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday, natural storm snow avalanches were noted up to size 2 in steep south and southeast facing terrain at below treeline elevations. Loose wet avalanches were also observed.
On Thursday, a widespread avalanche cycle occurred up to size 2.5.
While natural avalanche activity is likely to taper off now that the storm has ended, human-triggering will remain possible in many areas.
Snowpack Summary
50-70 cm recent storm snow has been heavily impacted by strong winds from varying directions, forming reactive wind slabs on all aspects. This snow overlies a variety of wind affected surfaces in exposed treeline and alpine areas.
Snowfall from the second half of January over lies a thin layer of facets, down 70-140 cm, that formed during the mid-January outflow event. Recent avalanche activity in the Bear Pass area and snowpack tests results have indicated that this layer is still a concern (check out this MIN report). Below treeline, a recent melt-freeze cycle formed a temperature crust up to 900 metres.
A crust from mid November lurks at the base of the snowpack. The last reported avalanche on this layer was Jan 17th. While it is promising that last week's significant snowfall did not trigger avalanches on this deep persistent weak layer, there is lingering uncertainty as to whether large avalanches in surface layers may step down to it.
Terrain and Travel
- Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Deep accumulations of new snow have seen extensive wind redistribution as a result of strong winds from varying directions (most recently from the northwest). Expect to find increasingly deep and reactive new wind slabs as you gain elevation on Sunday. Keep your guard up around steep slopes at lower elevations where a stubborn storm slab may still react to a human trigger.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Cornice grown has been noted in this region along exposed ridgelines, particularly on northeast aspects.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 2nd, 2020 5:00PM
