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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 21st, 2020–Feb 22nd, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: North Columbia.

The new snow may be more reactive than expected; especially on slopes where it has been wind loaded and is sitting on a layer of fragile surface hoar.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: 10-15 cm. snow, strong southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

SATURDAY: 3-5 cm snow, moderate west wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1100 m.

SUNDAY: 3-5 cm. snow, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level 700 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with potential flurries; 0-3 cm, light west wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

Several large cornice falls have been reported over the last few days. Most of them did not trigger slabs on the slopes below. Several natural and skier triggered slab avalanches up to size 2 were reported on primarily east/southeast aspects at treeline and above on Tuesday. 

Snowpack Summary

Clear and sunny skies have formed new surface hoar (size 3-10 mm.) on all but solar aspects where a new sun crust has been formed. This new interface will need to be carefully monitored as it gets buried. New snow falling on this layer will be more reactive than previous storms where the new snow did not fall on a persistent weak layer. The early February rain crust is another prominent layer in the upper snowpack that requires monitoring, though there have been no recent avalanches on this layer. The lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, aspect and exposure to wind.
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The new snow may be more reactive than expected; especially on slopes where it has been wind loaded and is sitting on a layer of fragile surface hoar.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2