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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 30th, 2014–Dec 31st, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Snoqualmie Pass.

As the weekend storm slabs become less of a problem, older wind slab on easterly aspects and more recent wind slab on south and westerly aspects will require travelers to evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify features of concern. 

Detailed Forecast

Previously moderate east winds should have diminished by Wednesday under mostly clear skies and gradually warming temperatures. When traveling into the near and above treeline zones, be prepared for recent wind slab formation on more southerly and westerly aspects. Older wind slab on more westerly aspects may still be sensitive in certain areas. Treat wind loaded slopes with caution, it is difficult to determine how sensitive they are with snowpack tests.

 

Snowpack Discussion

A storm system moved through the Northwest on Saturday and Saturday night delivering some much needed snowfall. West winds changed to northwest, with moderate to heavy snow west of the crest and a cooling trend. A convergence zone contributed to snowfall in the central Cascades on Sunday. NWAC sites west of the crest picked up about 12-20 inches of storm snow over the weekend except lower amounts at Snoqualmie Pass due to initially very wet snowfall. 

Professional observers west of the crest reported storm snow instabilities quickly settling out and not exceptionally reactive over the weekend. The snow layering ended right side up with low density snowfall at the end of the storm. 

East winds both through the Cascade passes and along ridgetop began to increase Monday and persist Tuesday. This has transported loose surface snow to some lee slopes, on more S-W aspects. The most recent storm snow avalanche problem should be over, however recent wind slab will remain an issue with certain aspects, generally near and above treeline.  

NWAC observers in the Crystal Mountain backcountry Tuesday, did see evidence of recent wind transport from strong E-NE crest level winds.  However, wind slab formation was highly variable and no triggered releases were noted. Good low density, unconsolidated snow ranging from 25-35 cm was unreactive and gradually increased in density down to a well bonded rain crust buried 50-55 cm. NWAC forecasters and WSDOT working on the Chinook Pass weather station Tuesday made similar observations. 

 

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1