Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Friday night: Partly cloudy, light wind, alpine high near -3, freezing level 2000 m.

Saturday: Flurries bringing up to 5 cm, light wind, alpine high near -4, freezing level 1700 m.

Sunday: 15-30 cm new snow in the south of the region, trace in the north, light southwest wind, alpine high near -4, freezing level 1700 m.

Monday: Flurries bringing up to 5 cm, moderate westerly wind, alpine high near -4, freezing level 1700 m.

Warm temperatures last week resulted in widespread wet avalanche activity. The most notable activity was last Saturday where there was both widespread size 1-2 wet loose avalanches and a few larger and destructive (size 2.5-3.5) wet slab avalanches. The large wet slabs were mostly on south and west facing slopes. Avalanche activity has been on the decline since then with relatively cooler temperatures. A cornice fall triggered a large (size 3) slab avalanche on a north-facing alpine ridge in Glacier National Park on Tuesday.

Looking forward, we may see some storm slab activity in the new snow on Sunday and solar triggered loose snow avalanches will be likely on Monday.

In the south of the region, up to 15-20 cm of new snow is forecast to fall by Sunday, while the north may see a light dusting. The new snow falls over a thick surface crust. The upper snowpack has undergone multiple melt-freeze cycles and is now crusty and refrozen in the cooler temperatures. Dry snow may still be found on northerly aspects above roughly 2400 m. There are no layers of concern in the snowpack, which has been melting and settling over the past week. Large cornices loom along many ridgelines.

• Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
• Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
• Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
• Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.