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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 12th, 2014–Feb 13th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Regions: Glacier.

It is a great day to head to the ski hill! Currently, a natural avalanche cycle is in full-swing at Rogers Pass.

Weather Forecast

The intense snowfall rates and moderate/strong SW winds will ease later this morning, with scattered flurries in the late afternoon/evening. Another system should arrive tomorrow morning, bringing 15-25cm of snow. Temperatures will rise slightly with arrival of the snow, and winds will also increase to moderate/strong from the west.

Snowpack Summary

15-25cm of higher density snow sits over 35-40cm of very low density snow. This has created a slightly upside-down snowpack that is very touchy, considering it all sits on a "surface hoar/crust/facet" sandwich that is easily failing in snowpack tests. The mid-pack is well-settled with a fair amount of faceting from the recent cold snap.

Avalanche Summary

Many avalanche paths in the highway corridor this morning showed numerous natural avalanches at all elevations running onto the fans. The same can be expected in the backcountry. Avalanches will be running fast and far, so give avalanche run-out zones a wide berth.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

50-60cm of storm snow overlies an old surface that will not bond well. Temperatures have increased and winds have picked up, creating stiffer slabs that are ripe to fail.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Winds have picked up from the W/SW and there is 50-60cm of new snow available for transport. Expect wind slabs to continue forming in lee areas at all elevations.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

Large sluffs can be expected in steep terrain. They are likely to gain mass and move quickly. Take extra care above and below terrain traps.
Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3