Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Warming temps and moderate SW winds have created a soft storm slab at all elevations.
Be suspect of surface snow that feels heavier/stiffer, like around ridgecrests and cross-loaded features.
Watch for "mashed-potato" consistency storm slabs at low elevations, especially in steep-sided gullies or convex rolls.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
A field team was able to ski cut a few convexities on solar aspects the last 2 days, producing up to sz 1.5 soft slabs running 30-40cm deep on the Jan 3 melt-freeze crust. These slabs were more reactive below Tree-line.
A natural sz 2 storm slab, ~30cm deep, 20m wide, 200m long, was observed from an Alpine start zone in the Connaught Path today.
Near neighbours are also reporting human-triggering of a soft slab, ~30-50cm deep, on unsupported rolls/features.
Snowpack Summary
Warm temps and 30cm of settling storm snow are creating a soft storm slab on top of variable wind effect in open terrain at/above Tree-line, and faceted snow in sheltered areas below Tree-line.
A sun crust (Jan 3), down 50cm and most prominent at and below Tree-line on S-SW aspects, has been the failure plane for recent human triggered avalanches.
The Dec 1 surface hoar layer is down ~110cm and is decomposing.
Weather Summary
Weak storm fronts will bring light snow, moderate winds, and mild temps the next few days.
Tonight: Cloudy, flurries, trace amounts, Alp low -5°C, light SW winds, 1400m freezing level (FZL)
Wed: Sun/cloud, flurries, trace amounts, Alp high -4°C, mod SW winds, 1600m FZL
Thurs: Flurries, 5-10cm, high -6°C, mod SW winds, 1400m FZL
Fri: Cloudy, isolated flurries, 5cm, Alp high -7°C, light SW winds, 1200m FZL
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Be aware of the potential for human triggerable storm slabs at lower elevations, even on small features.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Recent snow, accompanied by variable wind and mild temps, has created a soft slab that is most reactive near ridgelines and on convex slopes at lower elevations. Above Tree-line these storm slabs are present in lee features and a bit more stubborn to initiate.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
Be extra cautious on South through West aspects, where there is a sun-crust down 40-70cm that has been reactive to skier/rider traffic.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5