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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 12th, 2015–Mar 13th, 2015
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

There will be some recovery of the snowpack tonight. This recovery may not last long if the sun comes out, or the air temps rise above expected values.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Things will refreeze tonight with an overnight low of -4 at 2500m. The winds will calm a bit, but still clock in at 40-60km/hr. Tomorrow will be a mix of sun and cloud with a treeline high of -1.  Winds will continue to settle down to 30km/hr. Freezing level will be 2100m. Needless to say, no snow is in the forecast for tomorrow. Saturday on the other hand, MAY see 15mm of precip. How much of it comes as rain is yet to be seen. Stay tuned.

Avalanche Summary

Isolated loose dry avalanches noted on steep south

Snowpack Summary

The entire forecast region has been basking in the sun and enjoying unusually warm temps for the past 28hrs. The region's hot spot today was Mud Lake with 6 degrees. The valley bottom snowpack is now isothermal in most areas, up to 2200m. The "winter" snowpack does not return until treeline where there is a moist surface layer sitting on top of dry facets up to 2300m. Daytime highs at treeline hit 3 degrees today with overnight lows of +1. The alpine snowpack is more variable. The effects of the sun and heat are more pronounced on south aspects, but even the north aspects have seen some heat. There was intense transport at the upper elevations. Cornices are soaking up the warm temps and becoming a potential problem.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Tonight should see cooler temps with some overnight recovery. Freezing levels will rise to 2100m by mid-afternoon. Steeper south aspects will be a concern later in the day.
Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.>

Aspects: North, North East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Variable winds have kept this problem listed as widespread. Watch steep areas near ridge lines.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

It is unlikely to trigger this layer, but in steep convex terrain there is enough potential to keep it on the list. Large triggers are also something to think about. Cornices may be likely trigger.
Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5