Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 7th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
Chris Gooliaff,
Spotty distribution of the Jan 29th surface hoar, along with surprise avalanche incidents amongst snow professionals, should create uncertainty in the minds of all.
Keep your terrain choices conservative while we deal with persistent weaknesses.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Mod to Extreme gusty winds tonight, leaving behind cloudy conditions, scattered flurries, and rising temps for Wed/Thurs
Tonight: Cloudy, Alp low -9*C, mod/gusting extreme W winds
Tues: Cloudy, scattered flurries, 5cm, Alp high -6*C, FZL 1300m, mod SW winds
Wed: Cloudy, trace snow, Alp high -1*C, FZL 1600m, mod W winds
Snowpack Summary
The Jan 29 surface hoar (5-15mm in sheltered areas) and sun crust (steep solar) is buried 50-80cm. Warmth on Sunday consolidated the overlying snow, creating touchy slabs in shady/sheltered areas like the Bonney Moraines. Wind slabs are now widespread and at all elevations after Monday's winds. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5-2.5m.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous sz 1-1.5 and several sz 2-2.5 point release avalanches on Sunday out of steep, rocky, sun exposed terrain, as well as a skier triggered sz 1.5 storm slab in the Pearly Rock area from a thin, rocky area.
Several skier controlled and skier accidentals occurred on N aspects in the Bonney Moraines (persistent slab) and Overlook Col (windslab).
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Persistent Slabs
The Jan 29th surface hoar (5-15mm in sheltered areas) and suncrust (steep solar) is buried 50-80cm deep and is possible to trigger on open slopes that have not previously avalanched. The spotty distribution of the SH makes it tricky to locate.
- Convex features and steep unsupported slopes will be most prone to triggering.
- Whumphing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Strong-extreme Westerly winds and new snow Monday have formed fresh wind slabs at all elevations. If the snow surface feels stiff, you're standing on a wind slab. Evaluate wind loaded areas carefully.
- If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 8th, 2022 4:00PM
