Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 6th, 2022 3:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
matt,
Avalanche Canada
If tomorrow's storm happens, we will have a complex snowpack to deal with for a few days. Touchy windslabs, an uncertain persistent problem and lots of loose snow for entrainment will keep us all on our toes...or at least it should!
Summary
Confidence
Weather Forecast
We will get a brief reprieve from the cold tomorrow as temperatures approach -6 for the day time high. As this relative warm front passes through we will also get up to 20cm of snow by Friday night. Winds will be an issue as they are expected to ramp up tonight and continue on through the entire storm. Treeline winds will be moderate from the west and alpine winds will strong from the west.
Avalanche Summary
Some good observations today on our control run(EEOR) which were somewhat surprising. We were hoping to trigger windslabs on the Dec or Nov crust, but instead made several large holes that triggered sz 1.5-2 loose dry avalanches. There was one small slab at treeline that entrained enough loose snow that combined to make a healthy sz 2...maybe 2.5 if you are feeling generous. No other observations from our travels today.
Snowpack Summary
An avalanche control run today reiterated how loose the surface snow has become. Windslabs do exist at treeline and above, but entrainment of loose faceted snow is now factoring into avalanche size. This makes it tricky to nail down sizes. Safe to say you should expect bigger avalanches than anticipated. As far as windslabs are concerned, they are lingering in wind prone areas at upper treeline and alpine elevations.
Terrain and Travel
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
Problems
Wind Slabs
New, warm snow will quickly build slabs. Remember, these slabs will be sitting on weak, faceted snow and will be touchy.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
We are uncertain as to how this layer will behave with a new load. There's certainly no way it will help! Assume it to be touchy and avoid bigger terrain until it has a chance to settle, and we have a chance to observe it.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 7th, 2022 3:00PM
