Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Mt Hood.
Keep your terrain selection conservative Saturday: Human triggered slides are likely on wind loaded aspects near and above tree-line, which also happens to be the elevation bands with solid snowcover. Shower intensity and sunbreaks will locally mix in loose wet and storm slab avalanche potential. Choose more moderate and less wind affected terrain and safely enjoy a taste of winter.
Detailed Forecast
Cool mid-April storms in a snow starved season can be a recipe for accidents: Enjoy a taste of winter Saturday but keep your terrain selection conservative. Human triggered avalanches are likely on wind loaded aspects near and above tree-line. Shower intensity and sunbreaks will locally mix in loose wet and storm slab avalanche potential. Â
A vigorous frontal system passing through Friday night will bring a sharp drop in snow levels by early Saturday morning.  Light and scattered post frontal showers Saturday morning should become more intense and widespread in the afternoon. Â
Despite the strong cooling trend that will help new storm snow bond well to Friday night's snowfall, moderate and consistent westerly transport winds will continue to load lee aspects near and above treeline throughout the day.
Also, periods of intense snowfall during heavier showers combined with subtle daytime warming may locally escalate the storm slab potential Saturday afternoon and evening, with storm slabs failing within the new snow or new graupel layers.
Even with the winter-like temperatures, mid-April sunbreaks in the late morning or mid-day can trigger loose wet avalanches involving the new storm snow on solar aspects. Â
Cornices won't be highlighted as an avalanche problem due to the cool weather but use caution on slopes below cornices and on ridges where it can be hard to know if a large cornice is present.
Snowpack Discussion
A large weak upper trough moved over the Northwest last weekend through early this week with showers Sunday depositing 6-7 inches at Mt. Hood. Freezing levels have been very low in April compared to most of the winter, averaging about 4-5000 feet. Shallow storm slab layer was reported by the Meadows patrol Monday.
On Wednesday and Thursday, clear skies transitioned to scattered afternoon showers with light and spotty new accumulations.  On solar aspects, melt-freeze crusts are present.  Meadows patrol noted no avalanche problems Thursday or Friday.Â
Snowpack problems at Mt Hood should remain in the upper or surface layers. The mid and lower snowpack at Mt Hood consists of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this season. Many areas at low elevations do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1