Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Watch for shallow wet snow on steep sun exposed terrain and be mindful of cornices as these are likely to weaken during the warmest part of the day.
Detailed Forecast
Mild daytime temperatures and sunshine should allow for shallow surface snow melt, breaking down existing surface crusts through the day where they existed. Cooler settled powder is likely on steeper shaded slopes.Â
Small loose wet avalanches should be less likely Friday, but will still be possible on direct, steep, solar aspects.Â
Also, watch for any recently formed cornices as the sun and warming may weaken these, especially near midday.
Snowpack Discussion
About a week of fair weather, centered around the New Year, allowed for the significant snow that fell during a strong storm cycle that ended about Christmas, to settle and stabilize.
Fair and mild weather last weekend allowed for melt-freeze surface crusts to form on sun exposed slopes.Â
The most recent snowfall of about 6 inches, fell Tuesday through Wednesday this week. High pressure has returned Thursday with sunshine and mild temperatures once again. This weather should allow for recent snow to consolidate while sunshine and warming will allow for some surface melting leading to thin surface crusts Friday morning. Â
No recent observations have been received with the latest from the NWAC pro observer, Matt Schonwald, at Hurricane Ridge on New Years Day. Under warmer weather Matt found 1-2 inch sun crusts on south slopes and sastrugi and small building wind slab on north slopes. But he did not see any failures in snow pit tests. Some surface hoar was being preserved in some shaded sheltered areas. Cornices had become more isolated. It remains uncertain if any of the seen surface hoar became buried by the snowfall 1/5, however mild temperatures should allow for strengthening of that layer if it exists.Â
A skier on Turns All Year also reported settled, stable powder on north slopes on New Years Day.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1